Tastefully curated today by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GLandry on NBA chat.

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Quick update on NBA content before we jump into today's slate. As the season winds down and we have smaller and smaller slates we still want to provide you guys with what you need in your contests but we recognize the daily articles may be getting a bit repetitive as I feel like I've just been talking about the same players over and over for the past couple of weeks.

What we've decided to do, is once round one is over and the round two matchups are set, I'm going to write a game by game breakdown of each series with all the relevant player matchups, stats and anything else I find in my research that may help you build your DFS lineups. We'll keep this breakdown posted on the NBA projections page throughout round two so you can reference it as needed. If anything happens that is noteworthy such as injuries or unexpected news we'll be sure to update the article accordingly. We'll follow this same format for the remaining rounds as well until there are no more slates left! Hopefully, this is sufficient but I'd love to hear your feedback. We'll use it to shape how we approach our content strategy for future playoff slates in all sports.

As far as tonight goes, we should get some more clarity on the second round picture with all three games featuring a team that is facing elimination. I like the Jazz, at home, to knock off the Thunder and they will be a top target of mine on this slate. I also like Cleveland, despite being on the road, to finish off the Pacers. Outside of LeBron, I have minimal interest in this game. It has a low total and I think ultimately James will take matters into his own hands. Lastly, I like the Wizards to force a game seven with a win over Toronto. I have interest in both sides of this game but will be heavier on the home team as I think they carry more upside tonight. Let's get to work!

As always you can feel free to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry or follow me on Twitter @GP_Landry. I'm always up for talking DFS and would love any feedback about the daily articles so we can be sure they are adding value to your research process.

Guards

John Wall (DK: $10.4K, $10.8K) and Bradley Beal (DK: $7.2K, FD: $7.7K), WAS (vs. TOR)

Wall has been terrific in this series with only one game below 50 fantasy points. I really don’t care what his price is at this point I’m going to apply the same logic here I did with Westbrook on the Wednesday slate. He’s back home in an elimination game. Do you want to see the best come out of these players? Put them in this situation and watch what happens. Westbrook went nuts and I’m confident Wall will too. He has had 67 and 61 FPPG in his two home games in the series. You can definitely stack him with Beal on this three-game slate. Though he hasn’t been as impressive as Wall (few have) he’s been solid outside of game two on the road where he only had 17 fantasy points in 25 minutes. In the two games at home, he had 47 and 41 fantasy points which resulted in six to seven times return on investment depending on his price each night. Wall and Beal were part of the perfect lineups together in both home games so far. Washington has played significantly better at home and won both games. This is a blowup spot for both players and they will be a core piece of my lineups tonight.

Kyle Lowry (DK: $8K, FD: $8.4K) and DeMar DeRozan ($8.3K, FD: $8.6K), TOR [@WAS]

If you were on chat Wednesday night I went on a rant about how impossible it’s been to figure out the frontcourt players for both the Wizards and the Raptors in this series. I was all over Valanciunas at the start of the series and he played very limited minutes. He had mixed results, so it wasn’t all bad, but by game four he was down to 15 minutes while Serge Ibaka played a series high 34. So, naturally, I shifted to Ibaka for game five and what happens? Valanciunas plays 32 minutes and has his best game of the series while Ibaka falls off the face of the earth. I’m done trying to figure these guys out. I’m sticking to the backcourt players only as they’ve been consistent. With that out of the way, I like both DeRozan and Lowry tonight despite going back on the road. Their play has not taken as negative a hit when comparing home and road games in this series as it has with some other players. Outside of game one, where Lowry had 30 fantasy points, he’s been steady with over 40 in his last four. DeRozan is a bit more volatile but he’s had some big games himself with two over 50 fantasy points and another over 40. As our good friend @beshrader pointed out in chat you basically have to roster this guy because he takes a million shots per night. His analysis is pretty accurate. DeRozan has taken 17, 23, 22, 29, and 24 shots in each game so far in this series. If his shot is falling he’ll have a huge night for you. These guys should carry lower ownership being on the road tonight which increases their appeal in tournaments. Quick note, Delon Wright is definitely in consideration as well as Fred VanFleet should miss another game. I'd prefer Wright at home but you can't deny his value with the price tag and minutes he receives.

Ricky Rubio (DK: $7.4K, FD: $7.6K) and Donovan Mitchell (DK: $8.5K, FD: $8.7K), UTA (vs. OKC)

Donovan Mitchell is already calling it telling the Thunder fans “We’ll see y’all next year” and honestly, I’m buying. I went all in on the Thunder on Wednesday’s slate and it worked out well for me. With this series going back to Utah and a chance for the Jazz to close out the series in front of their home crowd I’m going all in on Utah tonight. Rubio has been terrific in this series with over 30 fantasy points in each game, over 40 fantasy points twice and 59 fantasy points in game three. The Thunder are a great matchup for point guards giving up 33.4 FPPG and 6.4 assists per game which sets up very nicely for Rubio. I’m hoping the field sticks with Westbrook after his monster game last time out but it feels like that was his last-ditch effort to save their season and he’ll disappoint again today. Mitchell has been every bit as good, if not better, than Rubio in this series. The incredible rookie has had over 40 fantasy points in four of the five games in this series and over 50 fantasy points twice. Similar to point guard, the Thunder struggled with fantasy production to shooting guards as well allowing 33.9 FPPG and 4.4 assists per game. I think you can stack these guys together or with other teammates as well. We have both Rubio and Mitchell listed as top assists combos with Joe Ingles who continues to get wide open looks from beyond the arc. The Jazz should put this one away tonight and these guys will be the reason why.

Forwards

LeBron James, CLE [@IND] (DK: $12.2K, FD: $12.3K)

No need for significant analysis here. LeBron is the top play on the slate and honestly, it's not close. I went Westbrook/Wall for my top tier players on Wednesday and it worked out well. James had an awesome game, including that incredible game-winning shot (and despite the missed goal-tending call) but he only matched the fantasy productivity of Westbrook who came at a significant discount and lower ownership. Tonight, James will be my core player with hopefully Wall if I can figure out how to fit them both in. The only downside here is he did take a slight price increase after his big game but it’s not a significant difference and it takes a lot more for me to place James in the “too expensive” category. He certainly looks more appealing when he’s under $12K but this is the King we’re talking about. The Cavs are going on the road but I don’t care about that when it comes to LeBron. He commands too much usage and lacks any sort of supporting help (including Kevin Love who was awful the other night) for me to get scared off of him in a road game. This is a rare series where both teams have managed a win while on the road. By the way, have you seen this video of the kid calling his game-winning shot? Fake or not it's worth a look.  

Domantas Sabonis, IND [vs. CLE] (DK: $4.8K, FD: $4.6K)

Outside of my brief mention of Delon Wright I’ve only discussed more expensive players so let’s see if we can get a couple of value options in here. Sabonis is trending up with 24 and 33 fantasy points in his last two games. He’s now been a member of the perfect lineup two games in a row and it would really make sense for Indiana to give him more minutes in game six. Myles Turner has been a disappointment, to say the least, with only one game in this series over 30 fantasy points. Thaddeus Young, while volatile, has been much better than Turner with a game over 40 fantasy points but also a game under 20 fantasy points. Having he and Sabonis get the majority of the power forward and center minutes would seem to make a lot of sense as a way to change things up and give the Pacers a chance to send this series to a seventh game. In three starts this season against the Cavs, Sabonis was outstanding with 38, 36 and 32 fantasy points. Give him the playing time and he’ll come through for you in this spot. He makes for an excellent, yet risky, value play on tonight’s slate.  

Markieff Morris, WAS [vs. TOR] (DK: $4.5K, FD: $5.2K)

This is a guy you need to have on your radar today as it sounds like Otto Porter Jr is very questionable. There were three separate updates on Porter at different times yesterday but it would appear he has a bone contusion in his leg. He’s seemed a step slower than usual and has struggled throughout the series. If he misses, the masses will run to Kelly Oubre Jr (understandably so) but Morris actually gets a larger usage increase and he’s still very cheap, especially on DraftKings. He’s in the boom or bust category as the floor is very low with a 10 fantasy point performance in game three but the ceiling is there as well with a 44 fantasy point performance in game one. He’s played solid minutes throughout the series so there’s a lot of potential value for him tonight. If Porter misses I like him a lot. If Porter plays you can still consider him especially assuming he’ll be low owned even on a small slate like this.

Centers

Rudy Gobert, UTA (vs. OKC) (DK: $7K, FD: $7.9K)

Surprise! Center sucks again as it has all throughout the playoffs. On DraftKings, I’m giving a long look at the options from the Pacers in Sabonis and Thaddeus Young for my center spot. They will provide some salary relief and have the upside to push your team ahead of the field. You can even consider someone like Derrick Favors. He’s had a very solid series including a blowup performance of 46 fantasy points in game two. On FanDuel, however, our options are much more limited. Gobert is the top choice but he’s more money than I really want to pay for this position tonight. We know how much I like the Jazz today heading back home with a chance to end the series. Gobert has played well with at least 27 fantasy points in every game, over 30 fantasy points in four of the five games and over 40 fantasy points twice. Don’t be scared off by his performance in the last game (which he still managed a double-double). He “only” played 30 minutes (he’s been averaging more than this) because of foul trouble but Gobert is not someone who’s typically prone to this so I wouldn’t expect it to become a trend, even in a tough matchup against Steven Adams.

Martin Gortat, WAS [vs. TOR] (DK: $4.7K, FD: $4.7K)

I talked about how I’m done trying to figure out the Raptors frontcourt and I anticipate, after a big game five, that Jonas Valanciunas will be popular tonight. He’s an easy fade for me as I’m not buying into his minutes after a one-game sample size and his price is too high to take on the risk. Instead, I’m planning to pivot to Gortat. The ceiling is lower but the floor is high enough that he won’t kill your lineups and he’s cheap enough that he’ll help you fit it some of the other more expensive players I’m sure you’re targeting. His minutes have been more encouraging recently in this series. He’s played at least 26 minutes in four of the five games and he had a double-double in game five which resulted in 31 fantasy points. I’m siding with the home team in this one. I believe I’m going to wind up with heavy exposure to Wall, Beal, and Gortat and I’m hoping Valanciunas's big game last time out doesn’t become a trend.

Jakob Poeltl, TOR [vs. WAS] (DK: $3.4K, FD: $3.7K)

If you do wind up rostering Valanciunas, and you’re playing multiple lineups, you should consider an insurance policy by rostering a little Poeltl. He’s a complete GPP flyer, but if Valanciunas happens to go right back down to his typical 20 minutes per game or less, Poeltl should benefit from that. He’ll be low owned and he’s basically minimum price on both sites. He’s shown a worthy ceiling when given the playing time, but that’s never guaranteed and the floor is obviously low. Even if you don’t roster Valanciunas, you could still “short” his minutes by getting some minimal Poeltl exposure in. If your gamble pays off, and Poeltl has similar fantasy production to Valanciunas, then you’d be in a great position versus the field and you would have had an extra $3K+ in your pocket to spend on other players. A complete wildcard here but you need some luck on three-game slates if you're going to make any money.

Injuries 🤕

Washington at Toronto

Washington:

• QUEST: Otto Porter Jr: SF/PF

• OUT: Jodie Meeks: SG/SF

• UPGRADE: Kelly Oubre Jr: SG/SF, Markieff Morris: SF/PF

Toronto:

• QUEST: Fred VanFleet: PG/SG

• UPGRADE: Delon Wright: PG/SG

Indiana at Cleveland

Indiana:

• DTD: Joseph Young: PG/SG

• UPGRADE: N/A

Cleveland:

• QUEST: George Hill: PG

• UPGRADE: Jose Calderon: PG, Jordan Clarkson: PG/SG

Utah at Oklahoma City

No injuries reported for either team

Elimination games are always fun and we’ve got three today. I’m siding mainly with the home teams outside of some possible light exposure to Lowry/DeRozan/Wright and obviously LeBron James. I’m completely fading the Thunder today. I’ll be heavy on the Wizards and the Jazz and I have some interest in the Pacers though the total in that game is very low. LeBron is my priority, he’ll be high owned, but I’m just taking the raw points and moving on. If I can fit him in with Wall that’s better but I’d be okay pairing him with Rubio/Mitchell as well which could be a cheaper way to go. James will be the building block with as much Wizards/Jazz exposure around him as I can possibly fit. Then I fill in the holes with what’s left. Would love to hear what you guys think about this so make sure to tag me in the LineStar chat rooms @glandry with your comments/feedback. You can also follow me on Twitter @GP_Landry. Thank you for reading!

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