On paper it looks like 🕯️Blowout Night🕯️with four games on the eight game slate have point spreads right around a dozen points. The oft-debated strategy of whether to assume a lopsided game or not will be put to the test here, but a lot of the teams getting points are extremely banged up.

Today's NBA Matchups

Mavericks (-4.5) @ Wizards, O/U 226.5, 7:00 PM ET

Dallas is on the back to back, and missing Kristaps Porzingis tonight. New York did a decent job of containing Luka Doncic last night (48fp) and he did play 35 minutes, but the battle with Russ Westbrook is tempting.

Lineup Notes: Porzingis (rest) is out, Bradley Beal (hip) is still GTD.

Knicks (1.5) @ Pistons, O/U 202, 8:00 PM ET

New York lost by 13 to the Mavs last night, the short turnaround being the big reason they're just a 1.5 favorite vs. Detroit. Julius Randle had 37 minutes last night, but everybody else had manageable court time (not like that has ever mattered to Tom Thibodeau anyways).

Cavaliers @ Heat (-12), O/U 209, 8:00 PM ET

This is a lopsided game that could be a sure thing, as Cleveland has lost their last two games by a combined 59 points.

Timberwolves @ Sixers (-12), O/U 226.5, 8:00 PM ET

Joel Embiid (knee) is expected back on Saturday, but how much value does he have ($10.4k) in a likely minutes restriction in what could be a big Philadelphia win?

Pacers @ Spurs (-4.5), O/U 219, 9:00 PM ET

The Pacers are on a back to back and will be missing Sabonis. We will need to watch the injury report for IND tonight as Brogdon and Lamb are also questionable. The Spurs have been playing at a fast pace and have given up over 120 points in 3 of the last 6 games while scoring over 120 in 3 of 4.

Magic @ Jazz (-15), O/U 216.5, 9:00 PM ET

It might be easier to say who IS playing for the Magic.

Thunder @ Trail Blazers (-11.5), O/U 228.5, 10:00 PM ET

OKC and Portland are both on 0 days rest after losses last night. Portland is still an 11.5 favorite but that's what happens when OKC loses by 37 to Phoenix last night.

Bucks @ Kings (-6.5), O/U 239, 10:00 PM ET

Giannis Antetokounmpo hit value with 47 real points (73fp) last night but do you run it back after he played 33 minutes? Against the Kings defense (also on 0 days rest) probably.

Tonight's Point Guard / Shooting Guard Notables

Jrue Holiday DK $7.7k | FD $7.8k

@ Sacramento

Stack the Bucks to win the Bucks 🦌💵. Jrue Holiday has been in the perfect lineup the last three games playing on the West Coast, with a great chance at four even on the short turnaround. The Kings are fatigued and have allowed 115+ in three straight - plus this point spread is 239.

Theo Maledon DK $6k | FD $5.9k

at Portland

Theo Maledon went off for 46fp yesterday, and he did so in a manageable 31 minutes heading in to the back to back. We ride that momentum vs. a Portland team (also on 0 days rest) that has allowed 39+ fp to the last three PGs not named Saben Lee or Chasson Randle.

Derrick Rose DK $4.7k | FD $5.5k

@ Detroit

Not that his time there was all that memorable, but D-Rose returns to Detroit tonight and could see an uptick in playing time with the Knicks on the back to back (or he could sit altogether). Rose played 25 minutes last night, and his poor 14fp outing was due to going 1-10 from the field.

Tonight's SF / PF Notables

Khris Middleton DK $8k | FD $7.5

@Sacramento

It worked targeting Buddy Hield's defense at the SF position last night as Kyle Kuzma went for 30 real points, why not play it back with Khris Middleton. There's an outside chance Giannis sits here on 0 days rest, which would give Middleton a 7.7% usage and +19 fp bump.

Rui Hachimura DK $7k | FD $6k

vs. Dallas

Laid an egg last time out with 12fp, but why burn him up in a 29 point loss at Detroit. The Mavericks come in on a back to back while also missing Porzingis in the frontcourt. Rui Hachimura has hit 39+ fp in 3 of 5, and the return of Davis Bertans isn't going to put that big of a dent in his production.

Robert Covington DK $6.5k | FD $7.4k

vs. Oklahoma City

For no real explainable reason, Robert Covington dominates Oklahoma City scoring 38+ fp in his last four games against them. We could see Portland pump the brakes on Damian Lillard and/or CJ McCollum tonight on the b2b as well, opening up a lot of usage for RoCo.

Buddy Hield DK $5.8k | FD $5.8k

vs. Milwaukee

Is it time for a Buddy Hield return to relevance? There's no better opportunity than against Milwaukee in a game with a betting total of 239. The Kings and Bucks are both on the b2b, but Hield only logged 29 minutes last night vs. the Lakers.

Tonight's Center Position Notables

Myles Turner DK $5.9k | FD $6.4k

@ San Antonio

There's likely no Domantas Sabonis to steal rebounds from Myles Turner, and there could be a lot of them available against the Spurs. San Antonio has allowed 13 boards to Ivica Zubac, 15 to Richaun Holmes, and 17 to Clint Capela at the C position over their last five games. Turner's boost without Sabonis is also +7.35 usage and +23 fp.

Wendell Carter, Jr. DK $5.6k | FD $6.2k

@ Utah

Carter, Jr. might start seeing an expanded role with this Magic team. For one, there's almost nobody else left on Orlando, but also because the former Bulls player had 21 points and 12 rebounds in Thursday's win over the Pelicans. Starting C Khem Birch is questionable again.

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