Tastefully curated today by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GLandry on NBA chat.    

5:30 PM EST UPDATE: Rather quiet today outside of the Dallas news that broke early this morning but let's take a look.  For San Antonio, Manu Ginobili is out.  Not a huge impact here but probably some extra minutes for Dejounte Murray.  The one Mavericks player we are still waiting on is Salah Mejri who is currently questionable.  If he's out Maxi Kleber should see heavy minutes and possibly even Jonathan Motley.  In Atlanta, DeAndre Bembry and Antonius Cleveland are probable to play.  I don't see these guys having much of an impact most likely added for depth.  Atlanta also called up a couple of G-League guys for tonight.  Dewayne Dedmon is still questionable but the addition of the G-League players has me thinking he'll be out.  Just a guess.  In Detroit, Andre Drummond is questionable.  He missed shootaround due to an illness but "hopes he can play".  Have a backup plan for center ready to go.  For Orlando, some breaking news is Nikola Vucevic is now out. Jonathon Simmons and Jonathan Isaac are also out, as expected.  Mario Hezonja should get plenty of run tonight if he can keep his hot shooting streak going.  For the Celtics, Shane Larkin is out and Terry Rozier is questionable.  Last night, Kadeem Allen started at point guard but did very little.  Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown handled the ball most of the time.  They would get a boost tonight if Rozier misses again.  For the Lakers, Lonzo Ball is doubtful and Brandon Ingram is "unlikely to play".  Expect the Lakers to roll the same rotation as the last few nights with Josh Hart getting the most minutes, followed by Tyler Ennis and then Alex Caruso.  That's it for now! It wouldn't shock me if there was some more late news.  It's just that time of year.  Stay alert.  

This slate is a bit scary with half of the teams in action having nothing left to play for.  Also, unlike yesterday, most of these games have mid to low totals so the amount of fantasy production is not as appealing.  The only game between two teams battling for playoff positioning is the Celtics at Raptors, but this is also one of the uglier games from a fantasy perspective between two slower paced and good defensive groups.  For today's article, we'll focus on value plays around the $6K and under mark (a couple guys might be over $6K depending on the site).  This isn't a "stud" heavy slate but there are some guys priced right on the line between high and mid-tier so you'll have to make a decision if you want to go stars and scrubs or more balanced today. Most of the value options are from teams who are tanking so there's a bit more risk than usual but there's still some good plays which we will highlight below.

The pre-lock update will go up between 5:30 pm EST and 6 pm EST. Keep an eye on the news, updates, and projections pages at LineStar today and feel free to tag me on the new and improved chat (coming soon to iOS/web) @glandry.  I'm always up for talking DFS.  Good luck!  

Guards

Yogi Ferrell (DK: $5.1K, FD: $4.3K) and J.J. Barea (DK: $5.3K, FD:$5.2K), DAL [@ORL]

The tanking Dallas Mavericks have done us a favor this morning by announcing early that several players will miss tonight's game including Denns Smith Jr, Harrison Barnes, Dirk Nowitzki and Dwight Powell.  With Smith Jr and Barnes both out, expect Barea to get the start at point guard and Ferrell to get the start at either shooting guard or small forward alongside Dorian Finney-Smith.  It's a great matchup for both players with Orlando ranking 18th against opposing small forwards.  Ferrell put up 30 fantasy points against these same Magic in 33 minutes off the bench back on January 9th.  The total on this game is low, but the spread is close and these guys should play as many minutes as possible with very little depth available behind them. Guard is pretty ugly on this slate today (especially on FanDuel) and I think you can make the argument to play both of these guys in the same lineup.

Damion Lee (DK:$4.8K, FD: $4.9K) and Tyler Dorsey (DK:$3.6K, FD: $3.6K), ATL [vs. MIA]

Another pair of guards getting some additional minutes on a team that has long since been eliminated from the playoffs, Lee and Dorsey had monster games last night against these same Miami Heat they will face today.   The Heat rank 17th on the season against opposing shooting guards and 21st in their last ten games.  Lee has thrived in his starting opportunities recently with fantasy point performances of 32, 32, 10 and 42.  The night he had only 10 fantasy points he only played 20 minutes for some reason but has averaged 30.8 minutes per game over the last week.  Dorsey hasn't had the same opportunities as Lee but has seen some additional run off the bench and finally broke out last night with 33 fantasy points of his own.  Dorsey has quietly seen an uptick in minutes averaging 24.8 per game over the last month and 26.6 per game over the last week.  I'd expect both of these guys to get similar workloads tonight especially if Dewayne Dedmon misses again and the Hawks roll out some small ball lineups.

Ben McLemore, MEM [@NOP] (DK: $3.3K, FD: $3.8K)

If you haven't figured out it's the end of the regular season yet this recommendation will open your eyes.  The Grizzlies injury report is insane right now with five players (three of which play in the backcourt) ruled out for tonight's game.  Expect McLemore to start at shooting guard.  We've seen McLemore be productive when given the opportunity both this season and when he was with the Kings.  He has multiple games of over 30 fantasy points including a 38 fantasy point performance earlier this month.  The question with him is always the minutes as Memphis is constantly changing up their rotations and making it hard to predict.  Tonight, with so many people ruled out, I don't see how McLemore doesn't get to 30 minutes as the depth chart is rather thin.  It's a great matchup with the Pelicans allowing 29.8 fantasy points per game to shooting guards which ranks 25th on the season.  I actually think we can look to a few Grizzlies players tonight for the first time in a while as they will have no choice but to give their starters playing time.  Given McLemore's history of producing when needed he stands out as one of the better value plays tonight.   

Forwards

John Collins, ATL [vs. MIA] (DK: $5.1K, FD: $6.3K)

I was a bit hesitant to recommend Collins as he played outstanding last night with 39 fantasy points but he benefitted tremendously from the unexpected benching of Taurean Prince which I'm not sure will be a multi-night punishment or not.  Prince has been pretty bad lately so perhaps the Hawks feel playing him limited minutes is a good way to ensure they get to see some of their younger guys and also give themselves a chance at more ping pong balls.  I'm going to try and read some more about this situation today and let you know what I find in the pre-lock update.  If it appears Prince will play limited the rest of the way Collins is a virtual must-play.  If Prince is going to play full minutes but Dedmon is out Collins is still a strong option.  If both are going to play then I'm obviously less interested.  It's a great matchup with Miami, normally a strong defense, ranking 28th against power forwards on the season.  They've given up at least 37 fantasy points to the position in four of their last five games (including 39 to Collins last night).   

Ersan Ilyasova, PHI [@DET] (DK: $5.6K, FD: $5K)

This one is going to seem super obvious as he's been on a roll with two consecutive starts and a 50 fantasy point game last week. But, Dario Saric is expected to return tonight which I think will cause most of the field to look away from Ilyasova and roster Saric instead. I actually think Ilyasova is a better option when he comes off the bench as he commands more usage in the second unit. That 50 fantasy point performance was from the bench. In his two starts since he's had 24 and 33 fantasy points. Still respectable given his price tag but I like him so much more playing with that second unit and he should still pick up some extra minutes with Joel Embiid unavailable. This game has one of the better environments for fantasy production as well with a mid-range 212 O/U and a spread of only one point. Detroit is 26th against the power forward position in their last ten games but tenth against the position on the season. This proves just how much of a hole is left on the defensive side without Blake Griffin. Perfect time to stay on the Ersan train and hope that everyone else hops off tonight.  He also saw a slight price drop on FanDuel to add a little extra value.  

Mario Hezonja, ORL [vs. DAL] (DK: $5.3K, FD: $5.6K)

I'm a hypocrite I know.  Here I am recommending a player I've called out as a poor option multiple times in these articles.  Sometimes being a good DFS player means admitting when you are wrong.  Ever since my multiple comments about this guy not being able to do anything with his extra minutes he's gone off.  In his last five games he's had fantasy point performances of 45, 38, 17, 27 and 33.  Okay, so maybe he's "gone off" is a bit of a stretch.  The floor is still low but the recent ceiling makes him an interesting target in tournaments.  Both Jonathan Isaac and Jonathon Simmons are expected to miss again tonight so Hezonja should get plenty of work.  It's not a great matchup with Dallas ranking 4th against opposing small forwards over their last ten games but we need to remember Dallas is rolling out a completely different lineup tonight.  Plus, he's still cheap enough that he could provide a nice return on investment if he reaches that 45 point ceiling he's shown recently.  He does have a decent history against the Mavs also putting up 23 and 27 fantasy points the last two times he's played them.  If he stays hot he should be able to put you in good position tonight.   

Dillon Brooks, MEM [@NOP] (DK: $4.6K, FD: $4.5K)

What's worse than multiple Atlanta Hawks recommendations in one article? Two Memphis Grizzlies recommendations in one article.  If that's not a red flag then I don't know what is.  I've already mentioned the length of the Memphis injury report which means Brooks should be another player that gets plenty of run tonight.  He's averaged 31.2 minutes per game over the last week and 29.3 minutes per game over the last month so his playing time has been pretty steady.  As with many of the value plays tonight his floor is low but he has a big ceiling also considering the price tag.  In his last five games as the starter Brooks has had fantasy point totals of 19,6, 32, 15 and 46.  It's worth noting that the six-point fantasy performance came with only 19 minutes.  So again, there's the risk he loses minutes but I just don't know who else the Grizzlies would play tonight.  The upside is definitely there and this is a fantastic matchup against a Pelicans team ranked 25th against small forwards on the season and 28th over their last ten games.  New Orleans gives up an average of 29.2 fantasy points per game to small forwards and Brooks had 23 fantasy points in 30 minutes against them earlier this season.  No safety here, but a high ceiling and a cheap price that comes with it.  

Maxi Kleber, DAL [vs. ORL] (DK: $3.8K, FD: $3.7K)

I'm recommending extra forwards today for a couple of reasons.  First, I had already finished my first draft of this article when the Dallas news broke and felt obligated to add Kleber in here as he's a guy I've been on for the past week.  Second, value center is ugly tonight and most likely you're going to wind up paying up so I don't have a whole lot to recommend.  So, I figured if we added a couple extra forwards it would help you out especially with your utility position on DraftKings.  I first mentioned Kleber in an article over the weekend as a guy who's fantasy production and minutes are both trending in the right direction but the playing time wasn't stable enough without an injury to one of the starters.  I actually rolled him out in tournaments last night hoping that either Dirk Nowitzki or Dwight Powell would be announced as out after lock (they were game-time decisions.)  This didn't happen but Kleber still had a good night putting up 26 fantasy points in 31 minutes.  Tonight, with both of those guys already confirmed out, I'll once again plan to roster Kleber as he should see even more minutes than the previous night and he's still under $4K on both sites.  The floor is low but if he finds his way to 35 minutes of playing time he's very capable of 35 or more fantasy points which would be an incredible return on your investment.  Keep him on your radar today.

Centers

Mike Muscala, ATL [vs. MIA] (DK: $4.3K, FD: $4.3K)

I'm going to only be able to recommend two value centers tonight with any confidence.  That's how bad this position is today, especially on FanDuel.  Outside of Drummond (who is now questionable), you've got Nikola Vucevic who is $9.3K on FanDuel tonight which is just way too expensive (he's $8.3K on DraftKings a $1000 difference so you can consider him there), Dewayne Dedmon is an option if he plays but that's up in the air, Jonas Valanciunas does not play well against the Celtics, Hassan Whiteside is playing very questionable minutes lately and I'd expect him to see less after playing 28 last night, Marc Gasol is only getting around 20 minutes per game in the past month and Brook Lopez is up against the Spurs.  On DraftKings, you can throw LaMarcus Aldridge into the mix as another option but after that, there's not much left.  Mike Muscala is in consideration from a value standpoint but this is contingent on Dedmon's status.  He filled in admirably last night putting up 26 fantasy points in 33 minutes off the bench.  Don't worry about the fact that Atlanta, for some reason, started Miles Plumlee over Muscala last night.  It doesn't matter if he starts or comes off the bench if Dedmon is out then Muscala is the only option.  It's not a good matchup with Miami ranking third against centers over their last ten games but he's cheap enough where the value outweighs the risk.  He showed this in the game last night.  It's a bit weird with these two teams having played the night before.  Will the Heat make the proper adjustments on the players who burned them or are they really not that worried about it since, well, it's the Hawks?  Honestly, I'm most likely eating chalk tonight on Drummond at center but if you wanted to differentiate at this position you could definitely do worse.  

Richaun Holmes, PHI [@DET] (DK: $4.3, FD: $4.2)

Amir Johnson will start in place of Joel Embiid but he's still seeing under 20 minutes in those games.  Holmes is the player who really benefits more from the Embiid absence averaging 22.4 minutes per game in the last week.  Not as many minutes as I'd like to see so my confidence level here isn't great.  He could easily dip below the 20-minute mark especially with Saric returning tonight.  I think that's unlikely though with Andre Drummond playing on the other end (although he's now questionable) as the 76ers will need a big man presence to take him on.  Holmes is a productive per minute fantasy player so when he's given the time he can definitely help your lineup.  His price tag is cheap enough that it shouldn't take much for him to return value.  I really don't see myself going here tonight but I wanted to at least make a case for a couple of players in this price range at this position.  He put up 35 fantasy points last night against the Nets in a runaway game and 18 fantasy points the night before, but only in 17 minutes of playing time.  If there is a path to 25 or more minutes then Holmes is a guy worth rostering.  

Injuries 🤕

Philadelphia at Detroit

Philadelphia:

• OUT: Joel Embiid - C

• UPGRADE: Richaun Holmes - PF/C, Dario Saric - PF/C, Ersan Ilyosva - PF/C

Detroit:

• DTD: James Ennis - SG/SF

• QUEST: Andre Drummond - C

• OUT: Blake Griffin - PF

• UPGRADE: Anthony Tolliver - PF, Eric Moreland - PF/C

Dallas at Orlando

Dallas:

• OUT - Harrison Barnes - SF

• OUT: Dwight Powell - PF/C

• OUT: Dirk Nowitzki - PF/C

• OUT: Dennis Smith Jr - PG

• OUT: Nerlens Noel - C

• OUT: Wesley Matthews - SG/SF

• UPGRADE: Yogi Ferrell - PG/SG, J.J. Barea - PG/SG, Maxi Kleber - PF, Dorian Finney-Smith - SG

Orlando:

• DTD: Jonathan Isaac - PF

• OUT: Jonathan Simmons - SG/SF

• OUT: Evan Fournier - PG/SG

• UPGRADE: Mario Hezonja, SG/SF

Miami at Atlanta

Miami:

• No injuries reported

Atlanta:

• DTD: Dewayne Dedmon - PF/C

• OUT: Dennis Schroder - PG

• OUT: Jaylen Morris - SG

• OUT: Kent Bazemore - SG/SF

• OUT: Malcolm Delaney - PG

• UPGRADE: Isaiah Taylor - PG, Damion Lee - SG, John Collins - PF/C, Mike Muscala - PF/C

Boston at Toronto

Boston:

• DTD: Terry Rozier - PG/SG

• DTD: Shane Larkin - PG

• OUT: Marcus Smart - PG/SG

• OUT: Kyrie Irving - PG

• UPGRADE: Jayson Tatum - SF/PF, Jaylen Brown - SG/SF

Toronto:

• No injuries reported

Memphis at New Orleans

Memphis:

• OUT: Wayne Selden - PG/SG

• OUT: JaMychal Green - PF/C

• OUT: Chandler Parsons - SF

• OUT: Andrew Harrison - PG/SG

• OUT: Tyreke Evans - SG/SF

• UPGRADE: Kobi Simmons - PG/SG, Ben McLemore - SG/SF, Dillion Brooks - SF

New Orleans:

• No injuries reported

San Antonio at LA Lakers

San Antonio:

• OUT: Kawhi Leonard - SF

• UPGRADE: N/A

LA Lakers:

• DTD: Brandon Ingram - SF

• DTD: Lonzo Ball - PG

• OUT: Isaiah Thomas - PG/SG

• UPGRADE: Kyle Kuzma - SF/PF, Alex Caruso - PG/SG, Josh Hart - PG/SG, Tyler Ennis - PG/SG

Roster construction will be interesting today.  I actually think it's more difficult on FanDuel than DraftKings when it's typically the opposite.  FanDuel has a few players that are overpriced in my opinion.  Also, because DraftKings has multi-position eligibility, you can more easily mix and match the strong value options with the higher priced guys today.  On FanDuel, several of the best players on this slate (Davis, Simmons, Aldridge, Randle, and Gordon) all play power forward.  So you have to figure out the priority on two of those guys and then build around them.  Or, you could go cheap at power forward to be different and then spend up elsewhere (not sure that's wise but you could). The "stud" tier only contains two players with five-digit price tags (Davis and Drummond) then I think you can add Simmons and Aldridge to that group today.  The mid-tier is interesting with guys like Randle, Gordon, and Tatum (assuming several Celtics miss again).  Then you have the value plays.  The question is are the stud plays worth taking shots on some of these value guys or does a more balanced approach give you similar upside with a safer floor?  Don't be surprised if you have more salary than usual left over today.  There are multiple teams without a starter priced over $7K on both sites.  Welcome to the last week of NBA regular season!  Make sure to leave us feedback by either responding to the email or tagging me in the NBA chat @glandry.  Always looking for ways to improve this article!  Good luck today!  Talk to you before lock!

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