Tastefully curated today by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GLandry on NBA chat.

5:30 PM EST UPDATE: This is weird we actually have more news for tomorrow's slate already then we do for today's slate. The big news of the day doesn't impact today but Kyrie Irving will miss the rest of the year including playoffs. Really tough break for the Celtics. Anyway, as far as tonight is concerned. Damian Lillard is officially out so fire away with Shabazz Napier if you prefer. Remember, he's much cheaper on FanDuel than DraftKings. In Cleveland, both George Hill and Jose Calderon are out today so Jordan Clarkson will get all the minutes he can handle at point guard with LeBron most likely backing him up. LeBron may never leave the court tonight. In Brooklyn, Dante Cunningham is questionable. With DeMarre Carroll already ruled out expect Jarret Allen and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson to pick up additional minutes. I have interest in Hollis-Jefferson. For the Timberwolves, Jimmy Butler is a game-time call. This is awful because we won't get the news before lock and his return could impact several players. Wiggins would still get minutes but could lose usage and Jamal Crawford and Nemanja Bjelica would both lose minutes. Just need to hope we find out sooner rather than later. Jeff Teague is still questionable and also a game-time call. Minnesota is going to screw this slate up for us. For the Warriors, Kevon Looney is available which takes away from Jordan Bell, Nick Young is questionable, and Andre Iguodala is out. If Young misses, the Warriors have basically nobody to back up the guard positions so Bell may end up getting minutes after all as we could see lineups with he and Looney out there together. That's it at this point. Keep an eye on the Minnesota news and also watch out for Houston if they decide to rest players. Those are the two traps today. Good luck!

Happy Masters! One of the best weekends of the year is finally upon us. But before we get to that we have a really great six or five-game slate on tap tonight in the NBA. DraftKings left the 7 pm game between the Warriors and Pacers off tonight so I'm going to avoid recommendations from that game to prevent wasting the time of those of you who only play on DraftKings. If you play on FanDuel just keep that game in mind. Unlike last night today should feature plenty of scoring and fantasy opportunity. We have all games with spreads of 8.5 points or less and totals of at least 211. The only line missing right now is Portland at Houston. I assume they are waiting for Lillard to be confirmed out plus Houston seems to be resting players at will lately with the one seed locked up in the west.

The pre-lock update will go up between 5:30 pm EST and 6 pm EST. Keep an eye on the news, updates, and projections pages at LineStar today and feel free to tag me on the new and improved chat (coming soon to iOS/web) @glandry. I'm always up for talking DFS. Good luck!

Guards

Donovan Mitchell, UTH [vs. LAC] (DK: $7.1K, FD: 7.7K)

The eastern conference playoffs are set. The western conference? Not so much. Just three games separate the fourth place Utah Jazz and the tenth place LA Clippers who are facing off tonight in a must-win game. Mitchell has seen a decline in price on both sites ($500 on DraftKings and $400 on FanDuel) despite a string of steady fantasy performances including three games in a row of 33 fantasy points (DraftKings) and then 40 fantasy points his last time out. I'll gladly take the slight discount in this matchup against the Clippers who rank 27th in defensive efficiency and 29th in average fantasy points allowed to shooting guards on the season. Mitchell put up 42 fantasy points last time these teams faced off which would be a pretty good return on his current salary if he were to match that production again.

Jamal Murray, DEN [@MIN] (DK: $6.3K, FD: $7.9K)

Speaking of close races, just one game separates the seventh place Timberwolves and the ninth place Nuggets ahead of their HUGE game tonight. This should be a very competitive, high scoring game. Vegas agrees as it has the highest total of the day at 226 and a spread of only five points. This is really more of a DraftKings specific recommendation where Murray is $1600 less than he is on FanDuel. Minnesota ranks 17th on the season and 24th over their last ten games in average fantasy points allowed to point guards. In their last two meetings this season, Murray had 43 and 40 fantasy points. He played 46 minutes in the second game in a 128-125 overtime loss. You can consider him on FanDuel but that price is awfully high for his production and I just don't think he has the ceiling in tournaments to make it worth it. On the plus side, it could drive down ownership over there. I'm anticipating this to be the highest owned game of the night.

Shabazz Napier (DK: $5.3K, FD: $3.6K) and C.J. McCollum (DK: $7.5K, FD: $7.2K), POR [@HOU]

I'm putting these guys together cause they both stand to benefit from the expected absence of Damian Lillard. Lillard hurt his ankle in the previous game and since the Blazers are one of the few teams in the west with a playoff spot locked up and a small cushion on their current three seed it makes all the sense in the world to hold him out tonight. They also happen to be playing Houston who has first place locked up and has been doing some resting of players themselves recently. The last time Lillard missed, Napier burned the entire DFS world putting up a less than exciting 14 fantasy points. This definitely gives me pause when considering him today. DraftKings wisely priced him up in anticipation of Lillard missing but on FanDuel he's still basically minimum price and still pretty close to a must play despite what happened before. Minimum priced point guards with a clear path to 30 minutes of playing time are just very hard to avoid. I'm likely going to push the last time we faced this situation out of my mind and give him another shot. I'm also mentioning McCollum because while Napier was burning the DFS world last time Lillard missed, it was McCollum who was setting it on fire. He put up 56 fantasy points including 42 real-life points. He sees a nearly 3% usage increase without Lillard on the floor. Both of these guys are in heavy consideration today though Napier less so on DraftKings.

Forwards

LeBron James, CLE [vs. WAS] (DK: $11.6K, FD: $11.7K)

Here we go again. I recommended James earlier this week and he let me down. 49 fantasy points simply aren't enough when you're paying well over $12K for a player. Tonight, you have three stud forwards (two on DraftKings) that you'll need to prioritize. Durant is the cheapest of the three but he also has the worst matchup against a Pacers team ranked 1st against opposing small forwards in their last ten games. This doesn't mean he can't do it it just simply means he's less likely. Next, you have Antetokounmpo. He has the best matchup of the three against Brooklyn. But, this makes me nervous, as the Nets looked like a team ready to give up on the season their last time out and got destroyed by the 76ers. They will be missing a couple of starters tonight and I could very easily see this game getting out of hand and the Bucks using it as an opportunity to rest some guys late in the game. Again, not saying this will happen but it's a scenario to consider. Giannis is also only $200 less on FanDuel and $600 less on DraftKings than James. Not as big a discount as you'd normally get. James is the most likely of the three to be in a game that is competitive. While Washington is locked into the playoffs they are still tied for seventh place and would be in eighth place tonight if they lose this game (assuming the Bucks will beat the Nets.) They could also improve their position only being a half-game behind Miami. Cleveland is currently tied for third with the 76ers and would fall with a loss. James also has games against the Wizards this season of 62, 58 and 92 fantasy points. Yes, 92. Granted, he played 42 minutes in an overtime win that night but that shows you how competitive this game could be. I'm going back to the well on James tonight. By the way, if you're still not convinced, his price dropped on both sites. Not a ton, but he's less than $12K again. Every little bit helps.

Paul Millsap, DEN [vs. MIN] (DK: $6.9K, FD: $7.5K)

I'll start off by saying this is not a great matchup. Minnesota ranks fifth against power forwards over their last ten games. Millsap, however, has been playing some tremendous basketball recently. In the last week, he's nearly averaging a double-double with 25.3 real-life points and 9.7 rebounds per game. As with all the Denver starters right now he's playing absurd minutes averaging 37.2 per game over the last week. He's had two games with over 50 fantasy points in just the last week. This is a monster game tonight with playoff lives on the line. It should be high scoring, it should be close and both sides should have multiple players with big fantasy nights. I like Millsap to be a key contributor in this game and flirt with double-double territory tonight.

Joe Ingles, UTA [vs. LAC] (DK: $5.9K, FD: $6.5K)

I think the Jazz are a good source of potential fantasy production tonight and should be slightly less owned with much of the field heavily focused on the Nuggets/Timberwolves game. Ingles is not a guy I roster all that often but he's getting good minutes (33.2 per game over the last week), with a solid floor (at least 26 fantasy points in his last 15 games), and a ceiling to work with (three games over 40 fantasy points in the month of March). This is an excellent matchup with the Clippers allowing 27.5 fantasy points per game to small forwards, which ranks 21st on the season. Ingles put up 38 fantasy points against them in their last meeting on January 20th. I don't love forward tonight outside of the stud players, especially on FanDuel where you need to play two of each. I can see a situation where the field takes the value at the guard position and then pays up for multiple studs at forward. If you agree with that, you could try being different and pairing someone like Ingles with one of the stud forwards and then pay up at guard for someone like Harden (I didn't mention Harden because of all the value but the Rockets continue to play him big minutes for no reason.) Strategy aside, Ingles is in a good spot tonight, has been playing well lately, and is someone I will be considering today.

Centers

Nikola Jokic, DEN [vs. MIN] (DK: $10.4K, FD: $11K)

He's priced up again, which definitely gives me pause, especially on FanDuel where this is his highest price of the season. If it were any other night I think I'd stay away as we know his performances tend to fluctuate and he can leave you in a bad spot. But this game environment is pulling me in. This has all the makings of a shootout and potential explosion spot for someone like Jokic. Minnesota is 19th against centers this season in average fantasy points allowed and 23rd in their last ten games. Karl Anthony-Towns is not a difficult individual matchup ranking 63rd of 80 centers with a defensive real-plus minus of .80. Jokic needs to get you at least 60 fantasy points to make this worth it which he's done twice in his last four games (with the other two games being 56 and 59 fantasy points). You're going to want exposure to this game in GPPs tonight but just know the added cost means added risk.

Karl Anthony-Towns, MIN [@DEN] (DK: $9.8K, FD: $10K)

Noticing a theme yet with tonight's slate? Stack this game. Towns is more appropriately priced than Jokic. He's seen a drop of $800 on FanDuel in the last week and $500 on DraftKings since their last game. At first glance, the discount makes him more appealing. But, from a strategy standpoint, the cheaper price tag means he'll carry more ownership which has me leaning Jokic in GPPs. Just something to keep in mind. They have similar ceilings and Towns has a slightly stronger floor. I'm not worrying too much about the floor with only a few days left in the regular season. It's nearly identical from a matchup standpoint with the Nuggets ranked 18th on the season and 24th in their last ten games against centers. Towns scored 48 fantasy points in both of their meetings this season which is respectable but you'll need more than that tonight. He's averaging a double-double over the last week with 20.5 points and 13.5 rebounds to go along with 40.1 minutes per game. He's a near lock for a double-double tonight and he should be capable of getting you closer to the 60 fantasy point mark.

Jusuf Nurkic, POR [@HOU] (DK: $6.6K, FD: $7.5K)

Want to differentiate yourself a bit? Look no further than Jusuf Nurkic. On paper, it looks like a bad matchup with Houston ranking second against opposing centers over their last ten games. But, if you look at the players they've faced (see matchup chart below) you can see none of these guys are normal fantasy producers and most of them played very few minutes. The only regular fantasy producer who played a normal number of minutes was LaMarcus Aldridge who went off for 50 fantasy points in 36 minutes of action. Nurkic also benefits from Lillard missing tonight's game. He, along with McCollum, should soak up some extra usage. In their last game with the Rockets, he had a double-double with 11 rebounds and 55 fantasy points in only 27 minutes. I'm strongly considering going here in tournaments as I think he can stay close to Towns and Jokic with significantly less ownership and cost. I can get exposure to the Nuggets/Wolves game in other places. Just a thought right now but a definite possibility.

Injuries 🤕

Golden State at Indiana

Golden State:

• PROB: Kevon Looney - SF/PF

• QUEST: Draymond Green - PF/C

• DOUBT: Andre Iguodala - SG/SF

• DOUBT: Omri Casspi - SF

• OUT: Patrick McCaw - PG/SF

• OUT: Steph Curry - PG/SG

• UPGRADE: Jordan Bell - PF/C, Nick Young - SG

Indiana:

• No injuries reported

Portland at Houston

Portland:

• OUT: Damian Lillard - PG

• OUT: Ed Davis - PF/C

• OUT: Moe Harkless - SG/SF

• UPGRADE: Zach Collins - PF/C, Shabazz Napier - PG/SG, Evan Turner - SG/SF

Houston:

• OUT: Ryan Anderson - PF/C

• UPGRADE: N/A

Brooklyn at Milwaukee

Brooklyn:

• DTD: Allen Crabbe - SG/SF

• OUT: DeMarre Carroll - SF/PF

• OUT: Isaiah Whitehead - PG

• UPGRADE: Joe Harris - SG/SF, Chris LeVert - SG/SF, Spencer Dinwiddie - PG/SG

Milwaukee:

• OUT: Matthew Dellavedova - PG

• OUT: Malcolm Brogdon - PG

• UPGRADE: N/A

Washington at Cleveland

Washington:

• No injuries reported

Cleveland:

• DTD: George Hill - PG

• UPGRADE: Jose Calderon - PG, Jordan Clarkson - PG/SG

LA Clippers at Utah

LA Clippers:

• OUT: Danilo Gallinari: SF/PF

• OUT: Jawun Evans - PG

• OUT: Milos Teodosic - PG/SG

• UPGRADE: Tyrone Wallace - PG/SG, Lou Williams - PG/SG

Utah:

• PROB: Joe Ingles - SG/SF

• DTD: Raul Neto - PG

• UPGRADE: Jae Crowder - SF/PF

Minnesota at Denver

Minnesota:

• DTD: Derrick Rose - PG

• QUEST: Jeff Teague - PG

• DOUBT: Jimmy Butler - SG/SF

• UPGRADE: Tyus Jones, PG, Andrew Wiggins - SG/SF, Jamal Crawford - SG

Denver:

• DTD: Torrey Craig - SG/SF

• OUT: Garry Harris - SG

• UPGRADE: Will Barton - SG/SF, Trey Lyles - SF/PF

Much much better slate than yesterday. I still wouldn't be shocked to see some late-breaking and unexpected news but should be less crazy than last night with these games carrying more importance. Personally, I'm watching Jeff Teague closely as Tyus Jones had a great game as the starter when Teague missed on Sunday. If Teague misses then Jones is a near lock. Make sure to leave us feedback by either responding to the email or tagging me in the NBA chat @glandry. Always looking for ways to improve this article! Good luck today! Talk to you before lock!

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