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Top NBA Plays 4/6 | Can the 76ers Stars Dethrone King James?
Tastefully curated today by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GLandry on NBA chat.
5:00 PM EST UPDATE: In Minnesota, Jeff Teague is probable. I had read there was a chance he would rest tonight after playing 36 minutes on a sore hip but this is a must-win game so that's not going to happen. Jimmy Butler is currently questionable but all signs are pointing toward him playing. He was active last night but never entered the game. Expect his return today. For the Cavs, George Hill is out and Jose Calderon is questionable. I'm staying away from this situation after they held Jordan Clarkson to just 22 minutes last night and decided to give Cedi Osman 15. Clarkson is the way better option but not if I can't trust his minutes. For the Suns, Devin Booker is confirmed out. The remaining Suns starters are still "unlikely to play". Expect a starting five of Ulis, House, Jackson, Bender, and Chriss with Alex Len off the bench. For the Knicks, Enes Kanter is doubtful so Kyle O'Quinn is going to start again. He's played really well but his price now reflects that. In Boston, Shane Larkin will be available tonight but Al Horford and Jayson Tatum will both rest. Look for Marcus Morris and Greg Monroe to pick up extra minutes. Terry Rozier will likely get some extra usage (there is no sample size on the usage matrix for this lineup so I can't give you exact figures). In Chicago, Noah Vonleh is out. Expect Bobby Portis to get extra minutes off the bench. The Heat will have Goran Dragic, Dwayne Wade, and James Johnson all back tonight after being ruled out just before lock in their last game. If the Heat are smart, they try to lose so they face the injury-riddled Celtics in the playoffs instead of the Cavs or 76ers. I'm staying away from Miami. The Mavericks are likely to get back Dwight Powell, Harrison Barnes and Dennis Smith Jr who all missed their last game. I'm less interested in Aaron Harrison now. Reggie Bullock has been shut down for the season in Detroit which means Luke Kennard will get the start and Stanley Johnson should get some extra minutes as well. I'm not big on Kennard but you could take a shot in a large field GPP. Lastly, in Washington, John Wall is out for rest purposes, as expected and Ian Mahinmi is out with a concussion. Jason Smith could get some extra minutes at backup center. Those are the updates we have so far.
Here's what we haven't heard anything about yet:
Dario Saric - questionable
TJ Warren - doubtful
Elfrid Payton - doubtful
Troy Daniels - doubtful
Michael Beasley - questionable
Taurean Prince - questionable
That's everything I've got. Stay close to the news, good luck tonight and I'll talk with you on chat @glandry
It's taking me longer to type up the injury reports than it is to do the actual article lately. A week from tomorrow it will be playoff basketball but for now, we've got another opportunity to go fishing for value on this ten game Friday night slate. It's a mixed bag in terms of games with some excellent ones like the Cavs/76ers with a 223 O/U and a 3.5 point spread. It also has some ugly ones like the Bulls/Celtics with a 201 O/U and a 10.5 point spread. There are three teams already with five players listed out for tonight and I think that number could get higher before the day is done. You're going to want exposure to the Cavs and 76ers tonight for sure. That game has a lot on the line including the whole "recruitment of LeBron to Philly" narrative. I'm looking forward to just watching that one as a fan. The young guns trying to dethrone the King. It's a shame Joel Embiid won't be on the court but it will still be an excellent game.
The pre-lock update will go up between 5:30 pm EST and 6 pm EST. Keep an eye on the news, updates, and projections pages at LineStar today and feel free to tag me on the new and improved chat (coming soon to iOS/web) @glandry. I'm always up for talking DFS. Good luck!
Guards
Tyler Ulis, PHO [vs. NOP] (DK: $5.9, FD: $5.6)
I never understood why the Suns brought in Elfrid Payton this season when they already had Ulis on the roster. At the end of last season Ulis was one of my favorite players to roster when they started giving him the starter's minutes and I assumed he would be their regular starter this year. Instead, they began the season with Mike James and then traded for Payton and he's been awful. Tonight, as the routine has gone for the past couple of weeks, all the Suns starters including Payton are "unlikely to play" so Ulis should once again get the start. In his last four games as the starter, Ulis is averaging a double-double with 13.7 points and 10 assists per game. During that span he's had 28, 39, 31 and 32 fantasy points. His price is starting to catch up to the production but he's still too cheap for a player that should get you at least 30 fantasy points with upside for more. He has a great matchup tonight, against a Pelicans team giving up 34 fantasy points per game to point guards, which ranks 25th on the season. He's one of my favorite young players in this league and barring a crazy price increase I'll be rostering him these last couple of games of the regular season.
Tyler Ennis, LAL [vs. MIN] (DK: $3.9K, FD: $4.4K)
There is some risk here as with many of the value plays tonight. The Lakers have been playing a bit of musical chairs with their backup guards since Lonzo Ball went down with his knee injury. At first, Josh Hart was the go to guy with Alex Caruso picking up the bench minutes and Tyler Ennis getting only a slight increase. More recently, Caruso has been the starter, yet he's playing the least amount of minutes. Josh Hart is coming off the bench at shooting guard and still getting enough minutes (though he's been less productive) and Ennis has been backing up the point guard and playing more than Caruso. Confusing? A little, but Ennis has played increased minutes each of the last three and done well with his opportunities so I like him the most of the three players tonight. In their last three games Ennis has had 19 fantasy points (16 minutes), 30 fantasy points (22 minutes), and 28 fantasy points (32 minutes). I like him to get somewhere around 30 minutes again tonight which means he's way underpriced. It's also a fantastic matchup with Minnesota ranking dead last in average fantasy points allowed to point guard reserves. 30 minutes off the bench against this team could mean a big night for Ennis.
Aaron Harrison, DAL [@DET] (DK: $3.6K, FD: $3.8K)
My second recommendation of the day from the University of Kentucky is Aaron Harrison. Harrison was the beneficiary of J.J. Barea's injury in their previous game. He came in and wound up playing 42 minutes and putting up 25 fantasy points. Not great per minute production obviously but he had also played 26 minutes the previous night and put up 23 fantasy points. The minutes here are not a sure thing. Remember, Dennis Smith Jr. also missed their previous game so Harrison and Yogi Ferrell were all that was left. It doesn't make sense for Dallas to push DSJ back with nothing left to play for and it makes all the sense in the world for them to give Harrison minutes so they can see what they have. At the moment, we have Harrison as the projected starting shooting guard alongside DSJ with Ferrell coming off the bench. Keep an eye on this situation throughout the day.
Forwards
Bobby Portis, CHI [@BOS] (DK: $5.7K, FD: $5.6K)
The Bulls have a very heavy injury list for tonight's game in Boston. The missing players in the backcourt have been consistent now for weeks but they also have several in the frontcourt today. Noah Vonleh is currently questionable and Robin Lopez is expected to be shut down for the rest of the season (not confirmed yet). If this were to happen we'd see Cristiano Felicio start at center with Markkanen at power forward and Bobby Portis as really the only guy off the bench getting as many minutes as he can handle. We've seen Portis be extremely productive when given the opportunity this season. For a stretch in mid-March, he was averaging 35 fantasy points per night and saw his price get as high as $7.2K. Now, he's under $6K again on both sites but really his production hasn't dropped off all that much. In his last five games, he's had fantasy point performances of 27, 38, 18, 30 and 28. He's got a solid floor/ceiling combo and what should be a clear path to 30 plus minutes tonight against a banged up Celtics team limping its way into the playoffs. Keep an eye on the Vonleh news but if he misses Portis is one of my favorite plays today
E'Twaun Moore, NOP [@PHO] (DK: $5.2K, FD: $5K)
The Pelicans are a team to pay attention to today. They currently hold the seventh seed in the west and are just a half-game ahead of the current tie for eighth place between the Timberwolves and Nuggets. One bad night could end their season. This is a very winnable game against the Suns who are rolling out all of their younger, reserve players and have been doing so for the past week. Anthony Davis is in an incredible spot tonight against a team he put up 93 fantasy points against back on February 26th. But, Davis is $13K on FanDuel tonight ($12K on DraftKings) and this game has a 10.5 spread. I'm not overly confident Davis will get enough playing time today in a potential blowout to pay off his massive salary, especially on FanDuel. E'Twaun Moore, on the other hand, is in a great spot as the Suns rank 29th on the season and 26th in their last ten games against small forwards. Moore, who typically plays somewhere in the high 20-minute range has a very real path to minutes in the mid-30s today with Ian Clark's injury. Plus, we could see him pick up a few extra if Davis were to get any additional rest toward the end of the game. These are all hypothetical situations but things to keep in mind. Either way, the worst case here is Moore gets his usual playing time. He's coming off a breakout game against Memphis putting up 48 fantasy points. I like all the Pelicans tonight but I do think, outside of Moore, they are overpriced and could be rested late in the game if it gets out of hand. Moore is the one starter I think sees an increase in minutes tonight, is still priced appropriately, and could have another big game in this dream matchup.
MarShon Brooks, MEM [vs. SAC] (DK: $5.2K, FD: $4.8K)
The former Net and Celtics player who hasn't played in the league since the 2013-14 season is making a strong comeback with over 70 actual points in his three appearances. His per minute fantasy production is through the roof with 30 fantasy points (21 minutes), 33 fantasy points (18 minutes) and 44 fantasy points (36 minutes). With the number of injuries for the Grizzlies right now it would make sense to give him as many minutes as they can so they can see what kind of player they really have. The Kings are a good matchup, ranking 18th in average fantasy points allowed to small forwards this season. His price is rising quickly but he's currently projected as a top-five value on both sites. Look for Brooks to keep the hot streak going as he builds on his recent success and tries to earn a starting role after recently signing a two-year contract with Memphis.
Centers
Dwight Howard, CHA [@ORL] (DK: $9.2K, FD: $8.7K)
Value center is lacking as most of these guys don't have enough usage within the offense to make them worth rostering. This will probably be a place worth spending a little extra money tonight and it shouldn't be difficult with so much value elsewhere. Howard is the one Hornets player who hasn't seemed to completely give up on the season. In the last week, he's averaging a double-double with 18.3 points and 13.3 rebounds per game in 29.9 minutes. The Magic are an excellent matchup for centers allowing 32.5 fantasy points per game and 10.2 rebounds per game. Howard plays well in games where the Hornets are favored, averaging 45 fantasy points in 24 games this season. He put up 46 fantasy points against Orlando, including 13 rebounds, back on February 13th. He's a virtual lock for a double-double tonight and should be the lone bright spot in an otherwise lost season for Charlotte.
Jonas Valanciunas, TOR [vs. IND] (DK: $6K, FD: $6K)
The problem with Valanciunas is minutes. He rarely gets more than 25 minutes per game (he's averaging 23 per game over the last month) so the floor is very low. Despite the lack of playing time, he's very consistent with seven games of at least 30 fantasy points in his last ten. The Pacers aren't the greatest matchup, ranking tenth on the season in average fantasy points allowed to centers. But, Valanciunas had 50 fantasy points, including 17 rebounds, against them earlier this season. The most appealing part about him is the price which has come down about $1000 on both sites in the last couple of weeks. With his near 30 point floor, you're looking at about five times return on investment at the current price with room for plenty more if he gets the time. This is a GPP only recommendation but he'll be low owned and has shown us in this spot he's capable of tournament winning upside.
Deyonta Davis, MEM [vs. SAC] (DK: $3.3K, FD: $3.5K)
The one value center you can make a case for is Deyonta Davis. Marc Gasol will sit out tonight's game for rest (and tanking) purposes. Davis should get all the minutes he can handle due to the missing players from the Grizzlies tonight. It's an ugly game environment with only a 198 O/U and the Memphis implied total set at 97.8 points but for a guy priced well under $4K on both sites this shouldn't scare us off. The floor is very low here but Davis has shown an ability in the past to put up good fantasy numbers. Back on March 21st, he had 34 fantasy points in just 21 minutes of action including 11 rebounds and a spot in the perfect lineup that night. He needs the minutes to be productive and tonight is his best chance to push for 25 or more. He only needs about 17 fantasy points to return value so there's room for upside even in tournaments tonight.
Injuries 🤕
Dallas at Detroit
Dallas:
DTD: Salah Mejri - C
DTD: Dwight Powell - PF/C
DTD: Dennis Smith Jr. - PG
OUT: Dirk Nowitzki - PF/C
OUT: J.J. Barea - PG/SG
OUT: Nerlens Noel - C
OUT: Wesley Matthews - SG/SF
UPGRADE: Yogi Ferrell - PG/SG, Dorian Finney-Smith - SG/SF, Maxi Kleber - PF, Kyle Collinsworth - PG/SG
Detroit:
OUT: Blake Griffin - PF
UPGRADE: Anthony Tolliver - PF, Stanley Johnson - SG/SF
Atlanta at Washington
Atlanta:
PROB: Dewayne Dedmon - C
QUEST: Taurean Prince - SF
OUT: Dennis Schroder - PG
OUT: Jaylen Morris - SG
OUT: Kent Bazemore - SG/SF
OUT: Malcolm Delaney - PG
UPGRADE: Isaiah Taylor - PG, Tyler Dorsey - PG/SG, Damion Lee - SG
Washington:
OUT: John Wall - PG
UPGRADE: Tomas Santoransky - PG/SG, Bradley Beal - PG/SG
Cleveland at Philadelphia
Cleveland:
DTD: Jose Calderon - PG
DTD: George Hill - PG
UPGRADE: Jordan Clarkson - PG/SG
Philadelphia:
QUEST: Dario Saric - PF
OUT: Joel Embiid - C
UPGRADE: Ersan Ilyasova - PF, Richaun Holmes - PF/C
Charlotte at Orlando
Charlotte:
OUT: Treveon Graham - SG
OUT: Dwayne Bacon - SG/SF
OUT: Cody Zeller - PF/C
OUT: Michael Carter-Williams - PG
UPGRADE: Malik Monk - PG/SG, Jeremy Lamb - SG, Willy Hernangomez - PF/C
Orlando:
OUT: Jonathan Isaac - PF
OUT: Jonathon Simmons - SG/SF
OUT: Evan Fournier - SG/SF
UPGRADE: Mario Hezonja - SF
Chicago at Boston
Chicago:
QUEST: Noah Vonleh - PF
OUT: Denzel Valentine - SF
OUT: Paul Zipser - SF
OUT: Antonio Blakeney - PG
OUT: Zach LaVine - PG/SG
OUT: Zach LaVine - PG/SG
UPGRADE: Cameron Payne - PG, Justin Holiday - PG/SG, David Nwaba - SF, Bobby Portis - PF
Boston:
DTD: Shane Larkin - PG
OUT: Marcus Smart - PG/SG
OUT: Kyrie Irving - PG
OUT: Daniel Theis - PF
UPGRADE: Terry Rozier - PG/SG
Indiana at Toronto
Indiana:
No injuries reported
Toronto:
No injuries reported
Miami at New York
Miami:
No injuries reported
New York:
QUEST: Michael Beasley - SF/PF
QUEST: Enes Kanter - C
OUT: Troy Williams - SF/PF
UPGRADE: Lance Thomas - SF/PF, Kyle O'Quinn - PF/C
Sacramento at Memphis
Sacramento:
OUT: Zach Randolph - PF/C
OUT: Garrett Temple - SG/SF
UPGRADE: Skal Labissiere - PF/C, Buddy Hield - SG
Memphis:
OUT: Marc Gasol - C
OUT: Jarell Martin - PF/C
OUT: Wayne Selden - PG/SG
OUT: JaMychal Green - PF/C
OUT: Chandler Parsons - SF/PF
OUT: Andrew Harrison - PG/SG
OUT: Tyreke Evans - SG/SF
UPGRADE: Kobi Simmons - PG, Dillon Brooks - SG/SF, Ben McLemore - SG/SF, Marson Brooks - SG, Deyonta Davis - PF/C, Ivan Rabb - PF/C
New Orleans at Phoenix
New Orleans:
OUT: Ian Clark - PG/SG
UPGRADE: E'Twaun Moore - SG/SF
Phoenix:
DTD: Jared Dudley - SF/PF
DOUBT: Troy Daniels - SG
DOUBT: Elfrid Payton - PG
DOUBT: T.J. Warren - SF/PF
DOUBT: Devin Booker - SG/SF
OUT: Alan Williams - C
OUT: Tyson Chandler - C
UPGRADE: Alex Len - C, Marquese Chriss - PF/C, Josh Jackson - SF, Danuel House - SG, Tyler Ulis - PG
Minnesota at LA Lakers
Minnesota:
DTD: Derrick Rose - PG
UPGRADE: N/A
LA Lakers:
OUT: Brandon Ingram - SF
OUT: Lonzo Ball - PG
OUT: Isaiah Thomas - PG/SG
UPGRADE: Josh Hart - PG/SG, Tyler Ennis - PG/SG, Alex Caruso - PG/SG, Kyle Kuzma - SF/PF
Interesting slate with such a large mix of teams still playing for something and teams who are not. The Philadelphia/Cleveland game is by far the most appealing from a fantasy standpoint. My suggestion would be to stack that game up and use your favorite value plays from above to fit in the missing pieces. Make sure to leave us feedback by either responding to the email or tagging me in the NBA chat @glandry. Always looking for ways to improve this article! Good luck today! Talk to you before lock!
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