Top NBA Plays 4/7 | Western Conference Playoff Preview Slate

Tastefully curated today by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GLandry on NBA chat.

6:30 PM EST UPDATE: Big news of the day is Giannis Antetokounmpo is out. I actually think this makes Jabari Parker less interesting now. I had highlighted him below because I liked the minutes and production he was getting with the second unit off the bench. I think he may actually see decreased usage sharing a rotation with Middleton and Bledsoe. I like Middleton and Bledsoe more. Malcolm Brogdon is also out after being a game-time decision but this has no impact as he's missed the last couple of months. In New York, Tim Hardaway Jr and Enes Kanter are both out. Kyle O'Quinn will get another start at center. He's less expensive on DraftKings but in consideration on both sites. Either Damyean Dotson or Frank Ntilikina should get the start and both will play increased minutes. I prefer Dotson out of the two. Michael Beasley is still questionable. Give a boost to Lance Thomas and Isaiah Hicks if he misses the game. In Brooklyn, Dante Cunningham will play. This could be a slight downgrade to Jarrett Allen but I think it's more likely that this just means Quincy Acy won't get any minutes, which is fine. For the Bulls, Noah Vonleh and Robin Lopez are out as expected but Lauri Markkanen has also been ruled out unexpectedly. Bobby Portis will start and play all the minutes he can handle, you know, assuming he doesn't get kicked out of the game again tonight. That should be everything! Good luck!

If you missed the 76ers/Cavs game last night do yourself a favor and find a way to go back and watch it. That was arguably the best NBA game I've seen in a while. Two things: First, a playoff series, say the Eastern Conference Finals, between those two teams, would be insane. Second, I think Philadelphia has a real shot to win the east. I'm from Boston and I'm a diehard Celtics fan but obviously, I realize we won't make it all the way without Kyrie and Hayward. I could definitely get behind a chance to watch this 76ers team in the finals though. With that said, we have what's shaping up to be a really fun slate tonight. It's small, only five-games, but three of them are between likely playoff-bound teams in the west. The lowest O/U as of this writing is 216 and the largest spread is still just single digits. We are missing one line on the Blazers and Spurs game I'm assuming they want confirmation that Lillard is playing. As of now he's probable so stay tuned. Let's get to work!

The pre-lock update will go up between 5:30 pm EST and 6 pm EST. Keep an eye on the news, updates, and projections pages at LineStar today and feel free to tag me on the new and improved chat (coming soon to iOS/web) @glandry. I'm always up for talking DFS. Good luck!

Guards

James Harden, HOU [vs. OKC] (DK: $10.8K, FD: $11K)

I keep telling myself I'm going to stay away from Harden but then every night he's on the slate I find myself clicking his name. With the Rockets having locked up the top seed in the west and nothing left to play for you'd think they'd rest him down the stretch. I believe we'll be looking at that situation for their last two games which happen to be back to back but I can't see him taking it easy tonight against his former team in Oklahoma City. This game just has more meaning to him we know Harden isn't a guy that wants to rest. I'm looking at this as the last game he goes all out in the regular season before taking it easy one game next week and resting the other. This is all speculation on my part but it does seem logical. He's relatively inexpensive right now as far as James Harden goes, down $800 on FanDuel and $1200 on DraftKings in the past week. Plus, if the narrative and smaller price tag aren't enough, this really is a great matchup. The Thunder rank 29th against opposing shooting guards in average fantasy points allowed over their last ten games and 29th on the season as well. I think there could be some back and forth between Harden and Westbrook tonight, though Westbrook has a much more difficult task against Chris Paul. This should be a fun game to watch.

OKC struggles with shooting guards

Rajon Rondo, NOP [@GSW] (DK: $6.3K, FD: $6.3K)

New Orleans picked up an important win last night and now find themselves sitting in a three-way tie for the 5th, 6th and 7th playoff spots in the west with the Spurs and the Thunder. All three teams are in action tonight so things could get really interesting when these games end. They are only a half-game ahead of Minnesota who currently holds the eighth and final playoff spot. This is must win-territory so expect the starters for the Pelicans to play full minutes. The Warriors have struggled to cover the point guard position since Quinn Cook became the regular starter, ranking 29th in average fantasy points allowed in their last ten games. Golden State has given up some strong fantasy lines to recent opponents including 39 FanDuel points to De'Aaron Fox a week ago, his best fantasy night of the season. Rondo himself put up 37.5 fantasy points against the Warriors back on December 4th. He had a double-double that night with 11 assists. I like for him to do something similar today in a must-win game against a Golden State team with nothing left to play for in the regular season.

Warriors giving up big games to point guards recently

Damyean Dotson, NYK [vs. MIL] (DK: $3.1K, $3.5K)

I try hard not to let recency bias suck me in when a player, who's never shown anything previously, has a breakout game. That's the situation we have after Dotson's double-double last night including 30 points, 11 rebounds, and 51 fantasy points. If I try not to let recency bias get me then why am I recommending him after just that one game? For starters, both Tim Hardaway Jr and Michael Beasley left last night's game with injuries. Beasley did end up returning but is still a game-time decision tonight. Hardaway Jr has been ruled out. If both of these guys miss that's a lot of minutes and usage for other players to soak up. Second, while I'm not expecting another 51 fantasy points, Dotson is the minimum price on both sites so realistically even 20 fantasy points would be a huge return. It's not a good matchup. The Bucks are tough defensively in the backcourt ranking second in fantasy points allowed to shooting guards in their last ten games. But, if both THJ and Beasley miss tonight the price and opportunity far outweigh the risk. He'll be chalky if this happens so keep that in mind for GPPs. Both Frank Ntilikina and Courtney Lee saw an increase in production as well last night so you could pivot and hope Dotson flops.

Small sample sizes but several players stand to benefit from injuries

Forwards

LaMarcus Aldridge, SAS [vs. POR] (DK: $9.3K, FD: $9.5K)

The first thing that stood out to me here is this is a lot to pay for Aldridge on both sites. But, when you look at the numbers he's really earned that price tag. Without Kawhi Leonard this season, Aldridge has truly stepped up and shouldered the offensive load for this Spurs team. He has at least 43 fantasy points in six of his last seven games. The only game where he didn't reach that mark was on March 27th when he got hurt and only played 18 minutes. He has multiple games over 60 fantasy points in that same stretch. Portland is not an ideal matchup. Al-Farouq Aminu and Jursuf Nurkic create one of the best defensive frontcourts in the NBA. They rank 3rd in their last ten games and seventh on the season in average fantasy points allowed to opposing power forwards. But, with the Spurs on his back, Aldridge is really in matchup proof territory. He put up 54 fantasy points against this team earlier this season including 14 rebounds that night. He's also averaging a double-double in the last week with 28.7 points and 10.7 rebounds to go along with 39 minutes per game. This is a must-win game for the Spurs who are in danger of falling out of the playoffs with a loss. Aldridge will do everything he can to prevent that from happening against his former team tonight.

Aldridge has had some tough defensive matchups recently and still played well

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, BKN [@CHI] (DK: $6.7K, FD: $7.2K)

The forward position is a little challenging today. We have some higher priced guys like Durant, Aldridge and Draymond Green but then less expensive options are a bit hard to come by. I'm not buying into Nikola Mirotic's huge game last night as something sustainable. Lauri Markkanen hasn't been getting enough minutes to make him an option. Carmelo Anthony hasn't been fantasy relevant for several months. David Nwaba has been getting the minutes without Denzel Valentine but he's getting too expensive for a guy that relies so much on scoring to put up enough fantasy points. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is definitely someone to consider. I can't figure out what I want to do with this Nets/Bulls game. It's between two teams obviously not in the playoff hunt anymore. Yet, it has an enticing 216 O/U and only a five-point spread. Aside from an eleven point fantasy performance on April 3rd in only 17 minutes during a blowout loss to the 76ers, RHJ has been playing really well recently with at least 30 fantasy points in 10 of 12 games and 40 fantasy points in 4 of those 12 games. The Bulls are 17th in average fantasy points allowed to power forwards on the season. I think I'm likely to pay up here as there seems to be better value at other positions today but he's certainly a player who gives you a decent floor and has the ceiling to do some damage.

This matchup sets up nicely for the Nets frontcourt

Jabari Parker, MIL [@NYK] (DK: $5.6, FD: $6.2)

If you're the Milwaukee Bucks, what do you want to do with your last couple of games? You currently sit seventh in the eastern conference which is really the ideal place to be as you'd be matched up with the Celtics right now who are limping into the playoffs. I still think Boston will give their first-round opponent hell and won't be an easy team to get by but compared to the other options they are certainly your best bet. Only a half-game separates the Bucks from moving up to sixth and a potential matchup with the red-hot 76ers or moving back to eighth for a date with the first place Toronto Raptors. So, do you win tonight? Or lose tonight? Regardless, that shouldn't have a big impact on Parker as a recommendation I just think the scenario is interesting. The memories of Parker being chalk last month when Antetokounmpo missed a game and completely flopping still stings but he's quietly putting together some solid games recently. He's averaging 33.8 minutes per game with 20 points and 7.7 rebounds over the last week. This is compared to his season averages of 22.5 minutes and only 11.5 points per game. These are nice increases in playing time and production. It would appear the Bucks are finding ways to get Parker more involved off their bench and he seems to be taking advantage of those opportunities. I think he's sneaky tonight in a good matchup against a Knicks team ranked 25th in average fantasy points allowed to reserve power forwards.

His production is rising

Centers

Kyle O'Quinn, NYK [vs. MIL] (DK: $5.9K, FD: $6.7K)

I mentioned in yesterday's article that I didn't love O'Quinn because I felt like his price was catching up to his recent success and makes him less appealing. We know Q'Quinn as a guy who has plenty of upside but can also break your heart and crush your lineups. When he's under $5K, sometimes you can get away with it, but the risk grows significantly with the price tag he's carrying now. I still feel that way, so I don't see myself going here, but I also have to recognize how well he's playing and that I was wrong about him last night. So, if you wanted to go here today, I wouldn't try to talk you out of it. For starters, he's playing my favorite team to use centers against. The Bucks are 29th in defensive efficiency and 22nd in average fantasy points allowed to centers. O'Quinn is playing some great basketball in his opportunities as a starter. He's averaging a double-double with 11.7 points per game and 13.7 rebounds per game. He's had fantasy point games of 32, 41 and 45. Not only is he playing well he's actually increased his fantasy output each game he's started. As I said before, I don't see myself going here, as I've been burned by him one too many times in my DFS career, but I still felt a need to recognize his recent play and I can absolutely see the case for using him, it's just up to you whether or not the risk is worth it.

Pau Gasol, SAS [vs. POR] (DK: $5.1K, FD: $4.6K)

This is a complete gut call on my part but gut calls can sometimes be the difference between winning and losing a GPP especially on small slates. Gasol's minutes do not reflect those of someone I'd want to roster in DFS. He's only averaging 16.8 per game over the last week. But, as we've already talked about today, this is rare must-win territory for the Spurs who are in danger of falling out of the playoffs with a loss tonight. Coach Popovich is a smart guy and he's going to pull out all the stops to give his guys a chance to win tonight. Gasol played 29 minutes in their last game and put up 32 fantasy points. They've had two nights off since that game so he should be well rested and he's had excellent results against the Blazers already this year with fantasy point performances of 50 and 38. On two nights rest, I think you could see Gasol push for 30 minutes tonight. Again, I'm speculating, he could just as easily come out and play his normal less than 20 minutes and give you nothing. But that really wouldn't make much sense.

Jarrett Allen, BKN [@CHI] (DK: $4.9K, FD: $5.3K)

I jumped on Jarrett Allen just before lock on Thursday night when the Nets announced at the last minute that Dante Cunningham and Jahlil Okafor were both out. It paid off in a big way as I got him at less than 10% ownership and he went on to put up 33 fantasy points nearly seven times return on both sites. Unfortunately, he'll be less sneaky today. People will pay attention with Okafor and Cunningham both questionable along with DeMarre Carroll already ruled out. There should be extra minutes and usage to go around. Plus, they are facing the Bulls which is a great matchup for centers. Chicago is giving up 35.8 fantasy points and 10.5 rebounds per game to the position. Allen was already seeing an increase in minutes prior to some of these injuries averaging 25.1 per game over the last week compared to 17.6 per game this season. He also put up 38 fantasy points against the Bulls back on February 26th in just 23 minutes of action. I mentioned before that I'm finding this Nets/Bulls game interesting and it should go under the radar compared to the three western conference playoff battles going on during this slate. So, while I think more people will notice Allen today than on Thursday, that doesn't mean I think you need to shy away if you like him.

My favorite value center tonight

Injuries 🤕

Milwaukee at New York

Milwaukee:

  • DTD: Matthew Dellavedova - PG

  • OUT: Giannis Antetokounmpo - SF/PF

  • OUT: Sterling Brown - SG

  • OUT: Shabazz Muhammad - SG/SF

  • PROB: Malcolm Brogdon - PG

  • UPGRADE: Tony Snell, Jabari Parker, Khris Middleton

New York:

  • DTD: Emmanuel Mudiay - PG

  • DTD: Lance Thomas - SF/PF

  • DTD: Michael Beasley - SF/PF

  • DTD: Enes Kanter - C

  • OUT: Troy Williams - SF

  • UPGRADE: Tim Hardaway Jr - SG/SF, Damyean Dotson - SG/SF, Kyle O'Quinn - PF/C

Brooklyn at Chicago

Brooklyn:

  • QUEST: Jahlil Okafor - PF/C

  • QUEST: Dante Cunningham - PF/C

  • OUT: DaMarre Carroll - SF/PF

  • OUT: Isaiah Whitehead - PG

  • UPGRADE: Jarrett Allen - C, Joe Harris - SG/SF, Allen Crabbe - SG/SF

Chicago:

  • DTD: Noah Vonleh - PF/C

  • OUT: Robin Lopez - C

  • OUT: Denzel Valentine - SG/SF

  • OUT: Paul Zipser - SF/PF

  • OUT: Antonio Blakeney - PG/SG

  • OUT: Zach LaVine - PG/SG

  • OUT: Kris Dunn - PG/SG

  • UPGRADE: Bobby Portis - PF/C, David Nwaba - SG/SF, Sean Kilpatrick - PG/SG

Oklahoma City at Houston

Oklahoma City:

  • No injuries reported

Houston:

  • QUEST: Eric Gordon - PG/SG

  • OUT: Ryan Anderson - PF/C

  • UPGRADE: Gerald Green - SG/SF

New Orleans at Golden State

New Orleans:

  • OUT: Ian Clark - PG/SG

  • UPGRADE: E'Twaun Moore - SG/SF

Golden State:

  • PROB: Andre Iguodala - SG/SF

  • DOUBT: Shaun Livingston - PG

  • OUT: Patrick McCaw - PG/SF

  • OUT: Steph Curry - PG/SG

  • UPGRADE: Quinn Cook - PG, Jordan Bell - PF/C

Portland at San Antonio

Portland:

  • PROB: Damian Lillard - PG

  • OUT: Ed Davis - PF/C

  • OUT: Moe Harkless - SG/SF

  • UPGRADE: Evan Turner - SG/SF

San Antonio:

  • OUT: Kawhi Leonard

  • UPGRADE: N/A

This slate has some potential. If Vegas has that Nets/Bulls game pegged correctly it could provide some sneaky value with most of the field focused on those big three western conference matchups. I think the Bucks/Knicks game is interesting also. The Knicks have some injury news that could open up value and I really like Jabari Parker as an under the radar guy who's starting to thrive in his role on the bench for the Bucks. We've got some revenge game narratives in play as well with former teammates Harden/Westbrook and Aldridge/Lillard up against each other. I hope this article helps! Feel free to leave me any feedback by either responding to the email or tagging me on chat @glandry. Good luck today!

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