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Top NBA Plays 4/8 | Two Mini Slates for Sunday
Tastefully curated today by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GLandry on NBA chat.
Feels like we keep switching back and forth between really good slates and not so great slates. Today is a not so great slate. First off, it's a Sunday slate so the games are spread all over the place. Fortunately, both sites are set up the same which makes it easier. There's an early slate featuring the three games that tip off at 1 pm EST and then the main slate featuring the three games that tip off at 6 pm EST. The game between Detroit and Memphis is not on either slate and therefore is of no use to us. As we usually do on Sunday, I'll just highlight some players from any game today rather than focusing on a specific slate since they are so small.
No pre-lock updates today since the games are spread throughout the day and the slates are on the smaller side. Every game has one team who is in the playoffs facing a team who is not. For those teams who cannot improve or lose their current playoff spot, I would expect guys to be rested (Toronto, Boston, Golden State, and Indiana). For those teams who can still improve or possibly fall from their current seed I would expect the starters to play but possibly rest later in the game if it gets out of hand (Utah and Philadelphia). Something to keep in mind as you build rosters today.
Guards
Quinn Cook, GSW [@PHO] (DK: $6.2K, FD: $6.3K)
I jumped off the Quinn Cook train when the Warriors starters began getting healthy again. With guys like Durant, Thompson, and Green in the lineup every night it's hard for someone like Cook to get his share of opportunities. But, with the backcourt for Golden state still very banged up Cook continues to play heavy minutes and has seemed to once again find his place in this offense. In his last 12 games, Cook has three games over 40 fantasy points, eight over 30 fantasy points, and no games with less than 20 fantasy points. He's also done very well against the Suns this season in two starts with fantasy performances of 43 and 40. Currently averaging 36.2 minutes per game and seemingly nobody else to play point guard (assuming Shaun Livingston is still out) I like Cook to push the 40-minute mark yet again in a dream spot against the Suns who literally don't play defense.
Jaylen Brown, BOS [vs. ATL] (DK: $6.2K, FD: $5.5K)
I'll start this off by saying I think there's a chance he gets rested tonight which would make this recommendation useless but we won't know for sure until it's closer to tipoff. In their previous game, the Celtics rested Jayson Tatum and Al Horford so I would expect those guys to rotate back in tonight and a couple of other guys to get this game off. Boston is already locked into the 2nd seed in the east no matter the outcome of their remaining games. Marcus Morris has already been announced as resting and I think you could see someone like Brown or even Terry Rozier also a get a night off. We'll have to wait and see. If Brown plays he's in a great spot. If Brown plays and a few other players rest, he's in a tremendous spot. The Hawks are 27th in average fantasy points allowed to shooting guards. They are giving up an average of 29.9 fantasy points per game to the position this season. If Rozier and Morris are the players rested today, Brown sees a 2.75% usage increase accounting for just over 10 additional fantasy points per game. No matter what happens Brown is under consideration today but if additional guys are held out of the lineup his opportunities will only increase. Pay attention to these scenarios.
Danuel House (DK: $5K, FD: $4.3K) and Shaq Harrison (DK: $3.7K, FD: $4K), PHO [vs. GSW]
Both of these guys should get a ton of run today as the Phoenix Suns injury report continues to grow at an alarming rate. As of this writing, the Suns have already ruled out five players and three others are questionable. Even some of the younger guys who have been getting a lot of time recently (Josh Jackson and Troy Daniels) are now popping up on the injury list. This means more opportunities for guys like House and Harrison who have both already popped up on many DFS radars even before tonight. In their last game, Harrison played 30 minutes and managed 31 fantasy points. House is averaging 32.4 minutes per game over the last week and has had fantasy point games of 20, 34, 26 and 18. The night with 34 fantasy points was against these same Warriors on Easter Sunday. He also had a nasty dunk in that game where he threw it off the glass to himself. No impact on DFS whatsoever but it was sweet and you should click this link to go watch it. With Golden State struggling in the defensive backcourt (20th against point guards, 25th against shooting guards and 25th against small forwards) I like both of these guys to get a ton of minutes tonight and far exceed their value given the low price tags for each.
Forwards
Jayson Tatum, BOS [vs. ATL] (DK: $7.1K, FD: $6.4K)
For the same reasons I like Jaylen Brown I also like Jayson Tatum a lot today. In Tatum's case, we know he won't be one of the guys who rests because he got the previous night off. I'll refer back to the same usage scenario I ran earlier in the article. If Rozier and Morris were to sit then Tatum is the largest beneficiary with an 8.61% usage increase. If we run another hypothetical scenario and say that Brown rests instead of Rozier along with Morris, Tatum is still the biggest beneficiary with a 7.21% usage increase. I realize making roster decisions based on made up scenarios isn't ideal but welcome to the last few days of NBA regular season. I think it's very likely that at least one of these situations happens so it's good to be prepared if you need to make a quick decision. Aside from the resting possibilities, the Hawks are dead last in defensive efficiency against small forwards. Tatum already has fantasy point games of 41, 38 and 48 against them this season. His price on DraftKings does give me some pause but he's actually underpriced on FanDuel. He's a strong option today that would only get better if players were held out.
Dragan Bender, PHO [vs. GSW] (DK: $4K, FD $4.3K)
When some of the frontcourt players for the Suns started showing up on the injury list I had incorrectly predicted it would be Dragan Bender, not Marquese Chriss, who seized the opportunity. Instead, Chriss has been on absolute fire while Bender has continued with production similar to what he's had most of the season. Well, tonight Chriss is listed as questionable which could make Bender very interesting. I mean, he has to step up now right? Who else is left? Even with Chriss out there, Bender has seen a slight increase in minutes and production recently. He's gone from averaging 28.4 minutes per game over the past month to 30.1 minutes per game in the last week. He's also averaging nearly a double-double in the last week with 12 points and 8.3 rebounds per game. This has resulted in fantasy performances of 14, 26, 22 and 26 during that same span. Remember, he's less than $4.5K on both sites so anything in the mid-20s for fantasy production is an excellent return. If Chriss plays then he's a solid option. If he misses then Bender is a great source of value on the main slate this afternoon.
Royce O'Neale, UTH [@LAL] (DK: $3.8, FD: $3.6K)
Ricky Rubio is currently listed as questionable with his lingering hamstring issue. The Jazz don't have much of a safety net on their playoff spot in the west but they do have more than most. Currently, Utah is a half-game up on the fifth place Pelicans (who are tied with the Thunder and Spurs) and a game and a half up on the Timberwolves who currently hold the final playoff spot. I also think this is a game they can win even if Rubio doesn't play so it may make sense for him to rest tonight. If he does, O'Neale (who is small forward eligible on FanDuel) should get the start at point guard and Dante Exum would get some extra minutes off the bench. In his last start in place of Rubio, on March 30th against Memphis, O’Neale played 36 minutes and had 33 fantasy points. The Lakers are ranked dead last in average fantasy points allowed to the point guard position and have given up at least 45 fantasy points to four of the last five they've faced. I don't use the word "lock" because we all know there is no such thing in DFS, but O'Neale is about as close as it gets if he were to get the start tonight.
Centers
Rudy Gobert, UTH [@LAL] (DK: $7.9K, FD: $9.5K)
I actually think you can consider Gobert on both sites today as there will be so much value you'll have to spend money somewhere. It's worth pointing out the massive price difference between them though. Gobert is $1600 less on DraftKings today than Fanduel. This is a great matchup as the Lakers rank 24th on the season in fantasy points allowed to centers. They give up 33.1 fantasy points per game and 9.4 rebounds per game. Gobert put up 48.5 fantasy points the last time these teams faced just a few nights ago on April 3rd. He had 16 rebounds in that game. Gobert has really stepped up over the past month averaging a double-double with 14 points and 12.1 rebounds per game compared to season averages of 9.3 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. He's also playing increased minutes. Looks like Utah is less worried about holding Gobert back with only a few games left to secure their spot in the playoffs. Fire him up today, especially on DraftKings.
Alex Len, PHO [vs. GSW] (DK: $5.4K, FD: $4.6K)
Len is another player that will greatly benefit if Chriss misses tonight's game. We've talked before about how Len is a frustrating player to roster but I've also said Kyle O'Quinn is worse and he's playing on another level right now. Perhaps Len can borrow some of whatever O'Quinn is eating before tonight's game? Regardless, if Chriss does miss Len should get the start and play as many minutes as he can handle. In his last five games with at least 25 minutes of playing time, Len has fantasy point performances of 30, 43, 22, 33 and 38. The Warriors are not a matchup to shy away from ranking 20th against starting centers in the last ten games. He's a better play on FanDuel where he comes with $800 in savings, but he's under consideration on both sites today assuming the injury news goes as expected.
Ivica Zubac, LAL [vs. UTH] (DK: $3.6, FD: $3.9K)
Zubac continues to see increased minutes and production even when Brook Lopez is on the court. In four of his last five games, Zubac has returned seven times the investment with fantasy point performances of 22, 27, 26 and 25. Kyle Kuzma is also questionable for tonight's game which could allow Zubac to pick up some extra playing time at power forward. It's not a great matchup with Utah being very strong defensively. They rank first against power forwards and 13th against centers in average fantasy points allowed. Like we talk about all the time in this article, however, price always outweighs the risk of a poor matchup. Anytime you have a player priced near the minimum with a clear path toward 30 minutes he needs to be on your radar. The path to minutes isn't clear quite yet so lower your expectations some but keep an eye on the Kuzma news and keep Zubac in the back of your mind today should you need some salary relief. You could definitely do worse on the small, three-game main slate.
Injuries 🤕
Atlanta at Boston (1 pm EST)
Atlanta:
OUT: Dennis Schroder - PG
OUT: Jaylen Morris - SG
OUT: Kent Bazemore - SG/SF
OUT: Malcolm Delaney - PG
UPGRADE: Isaiah Taylor - PG, Damion Lee - SG, Tyler Dorsey - PG/SG
Boston:
DTD: Guerschon Yabusele - PF/C
OUT: Marcus Morris - SF/PF
OUT: Marcus Smart - PG/SG
OUT: Kyrie Irving - PG
OUT: Daniel Theis - PF/C
UPGRADE: Terry Rozier - PG/SG, Jayson Tatum - SF/PF, Jaylen Brown - SG/SF
Dallas at Philadelphia (1 pm EST)
Dallas:
QUEST: Dennis Smith Jr. - PG
QUEST: Dwight Powell - PF/C
QUEST: Doug McDermott - SG/SF
QUEST: Kyle Collinsworth - PG/SG
QUEST: Salah Mejri - C
OUT: Dirk Nowitzki - PF/C
OUT: J.J. Barea - PG/SG
OUT: Nerlens Noel - C
OUT: Wesley Matthews - SG/SF
UPGRADE: Jonathan Motley - PF/C, Yogi Ferrell - PG/SG, Maxi Kleber - PF/C
Philadelphia:
OUT: Joel Embiid - C
UPGRADE: Richaun Holmes - PF/C, Dario Saric - PF/C, Ersan Ilyasova - PF/C
Indiana at Charlotte (1 pm EST)
Indiana:
No injuries reported
Charlotte:
OUT: Treveon Graham - SG/SF
OUT: Dwayne Bacon - SG/SF
OUT: Cody Zeller - PF/C
OUT: Michael Carter-Williams - PG
UPGRADE: Malik Monk - PG/SG
Orlando:
PROB: Aaron Gordon - PF
PROB: Nikola Vucevic - C
OUT: Jonathan Isaac - SF/PF
OUT: Jonathon Simmons - SG/SF
OUT: Evan Fournier - SG/SF
UPGRADE: Mario Hezonja - SF/PF
Toronto:
No injuries reported
Utah at LA Lakers (6 pm EST)
Utah:
DTD: Jae Crowder - SF/PF
QUEST: Ricky Rubio - PG
OUT: Raul Neto - PG
UPGRADE: Royce O'Neale - SF, Dante Exum - PG/SG
LA Lakers:
QUEST: Kyle Kuzma - SF/PF
QUEST: Lonzo Ball - PG
OUT: Brandon Ingram - SF
OUT: Isaiah Thomas - PG/SG
UPGRADE: Tyler Ennis - PG/SG, Josh Hart - SG/SF
Golden State at Phoenix (9 pm EST)
Golden State:
DTD: Shaun Livingston - PG
OUT: Patrick McCaw - PG/SF
OUT: Steph Curry - PG/SG
UPGRADE: Quinn Cook - PG
Phoenix:
QUEST: Marquese Chriss - PF/C
QUEST: Josh Jackson - SF
QUEST: Troy Daniels - SG
OUT: Alan Williams - C
OUT: Elfrid Payton - PG
OUT: T.J. Warren - SF/PF
OUT: Devin Booker - SG/SF
OUT: Tyson Chandler - C
UPGRADE: Shaquille Harrison - PG/SG, Alen Len - C, Danuel House - SG/SF, Tyler Ulis - PG, Dragan Bender - PF/C
As is the norm recently injury news will dictate everything you do today. There's still a lot of uncertainty out there so you'll need to pay attention if playing either slate. There's a lot of possible value I didn't even mention in players like Malik Monk who's playing really well in his extended minutes recently or Jonathan Motley in Dallas who broke out in a big way in their last game (and also got a massive price hike as a result). You're likely to be in a situation with salary left over as Durant and Simmons are really the only two "studs" in play today and they are on different slates. As a reminder, no pre-lock update today. Enjoy Sunday at The Masters and I'll talk to you tomorrow!
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