Tastefully curated today by LineStar Fantasy Expert @GLandry on NBA chat.    

5:30 PM EST: Holy news! Today is crazy so let's not waste any time.  We'll start with Sacramento.  Frank Mason, Garrett Temple, Skal Labissiere and Zach Randolph are all out.  De'Aaron Fox is the only point guard on the team today and should play a ton of minutes.  Jakarr Simpson will start at power forward.  I'm not interested in either in a bad matchup with the Spurs.  Gary Harris will return for Denver and their push to make the postseason.  He's missed the last 11 games.  Not sure about his minutes I'm guessing he has a cap which will make him unusable.  This is a downgrade to Will Barton.  In Brooklyn, Joe Harris is questionable and Caris LeVert is out (along with DeMarre Carroll).  Nik Stauskas and Spencer Dinwiddie should get some extra minutes.  Dante Cunningham will likely start in place of Harris/Carroll.  For the Bucks, Shabazz Muhammad and Giannis Antetokounmpo are both questionable.  This would be a boost for Khris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe, and Jabari Parker.  It makes sense for Giannis to sit as the Bucks should be able to win this game without him.  Malcolm Brogdon will make his return for Milwaukee.  He'll play restricted minutes to get his feet back under him the next couple of nights before the postseason.  This shouldn't impact any of the previously mentioned players.  Guys like Brandon Jennings and Jason Terry will end up losing minutes instead.  In Memphis, we have Andrew Harrison, JaMychal Green, Tyreke Evans, Marc Gasol, and Chandler Parsons all out.  Kobi Simmons, Dillon Brooks, MarShon Brooks, Ivan Rabb and Deyonta Davis all get a boost.  Each of these guys has can provide value it just depends on how you fit them into your roster.  For the Clippers, Austin Rivers and Lou Williams are both out as expected.  C.J. Williams, Sindarius Thornwell and Tyrone Wallace will get all the extra minutes.  Of the three Wallace is the most appealing but he's also the most expensive.  I highlighted Thornwell below.  He can definitely return and potentially exceed value.  I would peg his ceiling somewhere around 25 fantasy points which isn't really exciting but it's still a nice return on his price tag.  In Chicago, Paul Zipser and Noah Vonleh are both out.  Lauri Markkanen will start but he hasn't gone much higher than 20 minutes recently.  Bobby Portis is interesting but his price has gone up again after playing him a couple of times last week in the mid $5K range.  He's back up to the mid $6K range again.  For the Magic, Jonathan Isaac and Terrence Ross are both out.  Mario Hezonja should keep doing what he's been doing and Wes Iwundu and Jamel Artis should get extra minutes off the bench.  I'm not a Hezonja guy but if you catch him on a hot shooting night he can definitely help your roster.  I have no interest in Iwundu or Artis.  For the Knicks, Emmanuel Mudiay is out and Tim Hardaway Jr and Enes Kanter are both doubtful.  Damyean Dotson will be the big winner here and he's been on fire the last two games.  Frank Ntilikina will also play a lot of minutes though so far he's proven to be less appealing in DFS.  Kyle O'Quinn will once again start at center.  He's been fantastic filling in for Kanter recently.  Finally, in Detroit, Andre Drummond is out so expect Henry Ellenson to get the start and Eric Moreland to play additional minutes as well.  It's worth noting that Reggie Jackson was listed as day to day this morning with a stomach bug he had over the weekend.  He still played Sunday but wasn't 100%.  I haven't heard anything since so my guess is he plays but if for some reason he's scratched Ish Smith would be an excellent play as well.  Okay (breathing heavy) that's everything we know so far.  I'm still waiting on the Cavs who currently list Rodney Hood, Jose Calderon, and George Hill as game-time decisions.  All three of them went through shootaround today so it's unlikely all those players miss but if they do I'd really like Jordan Clarkson. We're also waiting on Toronto news as we expect some players to rest, Fred VanFleet and Lucas Nogueira both left the previous game early.  There could be some value there depending on what happens.  

We are on the homestretch!  Just three days remain in the NBA regular season and we'll start off the first of those three with a solid nine-game slate.  Only two games tonight feature teams playing each other and also heading to the playoffs (Portland/Denver and OKC/Miami).  The Pelicans, Spurs, Thunder, and Timberwolves are all currently in the playoff hunt, in action tonight, and within a half-game of each other.  Denver is currently on the outside looking in despite being tied with Minnesota but they are currently losing the tiebreaker.  This could change though when Denver and Minnesota face off on the final night of the season.  The Spurs and Pelicans also face each other on Wednesday.  The western conference is literally insane.  There's still a lot to unfold in the next couple of nights.  Let's get to work!

The pre-lock update will be posted between 5:30 pm EST and 6 pm EST so keep an eye out for that.  As always you can feel free to tag me in the NBA chat @glandry.  I'm always up for talking DFS and would love any feedback about the daily articles so we can be sure they are adding value to your daily research process.  

Guards

Damian Lillard, POR [@DEN] (DK: $9K, FD: $9.7K)

Similar to my "always play centers against Milwaukee" speeches that are common in these articles, another favorite unwritten rule of mine is "always play point guards against Denver".  The Nuggets rank 23rd on the season and 29th over their last ten games in average fantasy points allowed to point guards.  They give up an average of 33.7 fantasy points per game and 7.1 assists per game to the position.  They are 27th in defensive efficiency and Jamal Murray sports a -2.23 defensive real plus-minus, good enough for 93rd out of 103 point guards.  This is an important game on both sides.  Portland is in the middle of a three-game losing streak and trying to hold off the surging Jazz to keep the 3rd seed in the west.  Denver is currently tied with Minnesota for the eighth and final playoff spot.  I like Lillard to play the role of spoiler tonight and potentially crush the Nuggets post-season dreams.

Delon Wright, TOR [@DET] (DK: $3.9K, FD: $4.4K)

The Raptors are going into rest mode with the top seed in the east signed, sealed, and delivered already.  In their previous game, they held out Demar DeRozan and Jonas Valanciunas so it wouldn't shock me at all to see Kyle Lowry sit this one out.  On top of that, Fred VanFleet is currently day to day after leaving their last game early.  Wright could be thrown into heavy minutes tonight.  In the last week, he's had two games with over 25 minutes of playing time and he's put up 38 and 31 fantasy points.   The Pistons rank 22nd this season in average fantasy points allowed to point guards and 24th over their last ten games.  Most recently, Detroit allowed 34.5 fantasy points to Kobi Simmons of the Grizzlies who prior to that game had done nothing with his extended run.  Assuming both Lowry and VanFleet sit I like Wright as one of the better value options on the board today.  If Lowry is out and VanFleet plays that VanFleet would be the main beneficiary.  Also, worth noting that DeRozan sees a big usage bump with Lowry off the floor so keep that in mind.  Remember, as of now Lowry is not out.  I'm using a hypothetical scenario here that I think makes sense.  You're going to have to play out some similar scenarios when building rosters today and do some guesswork on who could rest.  Hopefully, we'll get all the clarification we need prior to lock. 

Sindarius Thornwell, LAC [vs. NOP] (DK: $3.1K, FD: $3.7K)

The situation for the Clippers is worth monitoring today as it could present some value for our lineups. At the moment, Austin Rivers is listed as questionable and Lou Williams is listed as doubtful. We already know that Milos Teodosic and Jawun Evans are out for the remainder of the season. If all of these guys were to miss Thornwell (and maybe some Tyrone Wallace) is the only person left to handle the ball. Even if Rivers plays, which is likely the only other scenario, Thornwell would still pick up extra minutes off the bench. It's a great matchup with the Pelicans ranked 26th in average fantasy points allowed to point guards this season. Ironically, the last time these teams met on March 6th we had a similar injury situation. Thornwell wound up playing 28 minutes and put up 19 fantasy points. He nearly had a double-double with nine rebounds. I realize these aren't numbers that jump off the page but keep in mind he's a minimum salary player.  I'd probably only go here in large field GPPs to differentiate yourself.  I think there are safer value options for other contest types.  He's definitely worth keeping an eye on as the injury situations unfold.  Hopefully, now that the Clippers have been eliminated, we'll get some news ahead of lock.  

Forwards

LaMarcus Aldridge, SAS [vs. SAC] (DK: $9.9K, FD: $9.9K)

As long as the Spurs are in must-win territory then Aldridge will continue to put them on his back.  As long as he continues to put them on his back I will continue to roster him.  This is a steep price to pay but he has been lights out recently.  In his last ten games, he's had less than 40 fantasy points just once.  He was hurt in that game and only played 18 minutes.  Outside of that, we've had a range from 43 to 67 fantasy points over the past two weeks.  A very comfortable floor and a ceiling that shows he still has room to exceed value despite the increased cost.  It's a great matchup against Sacramento who ranks 23rd on the season in average fantasy points allowed to power forwards.  The Kings are also missing their starting (Zach Randolph) and reserve (Skal Labissiere) power forwards at the moment which means Aldridge is likely to be matched up with Jakarr Sampson.  Ever heard of him? No? Me neither.  I did some quick research I don't think he's going to pose much of a threat to Aldridge.  His production is just insane right now averaging 30.3 points per game over the last week.  Anthony Davis is also on this slate so one of your high priced players will likely come at power forward.  Davis is $13.2K on FanDuel tonight I think Aldridge could be an interesting pivot with $3.3K in savings.  The downside, the Spurs are heavy favorites so there's always the chance they rest someone like Aldridge if they have a big lead down the stretch.  They'll need him for their big game on Wednesday against the Pelicans.  

Anthony Tolliver, DET [vs. TOR] (DK: $5.8K, FD: $4.5K)

This is a FanDuel specific recommendation where Tolliver is $1300 less than he is on DraftKings.  That's still too cheap for the production he's had recently.  Since Blake Griffin went down Tolliver has averaged 33.6 minutes per game and 20 points per game.  He's now had six straight nights of at least 24 fantasy points.  Since then Reggie Bullock, another regular starter, has also been ruled out for the season.  Reggie Jackson is also in danger of missing tonight's game with an illness that held him out of the previous game.  With these players off the court for the Pistons, Tolliver sees a 3.23% usage increase.  He's currently listed as a top two value at power forward on FanDuel.  The matchup isn't great, the Raptors are tough defensively, but I also don't expect the Raptor's starters to play full minutes and they are even likely to sit some players out completely.  So, at this stage in the season, you need to take some of the defensive metrics with a grain of salt.  

Khem Birch, ORL [@MIL] (DK: $4.4K, FD: $4.3K)

My initial reaction when I started looking at this slate today was that Aaron Gordon was too cheap.  He's seen a price decrease of $1400 on DraftKings and $1600 on FanDuel this month.  But, when I started to look at it more I realized that Gordon's minutes are way down.  He's only averaging 20.1 over the last week.  It makes sense given the Magic were eliminated from playoff contention long ago and they should give themselves a chance to see what some of their other players can do.  Birch is thriving in his increased opportunity.  He's had over 20 minutes per game each of the last four and put up fantasy point performances of 35, 33, 23 and 34.  We currently have him listed as the top value of the day on both sites.  It's a good matchup against Milwaukee who is very weak defensively in the frontcourt.  Birch has had success against them already this season.  In two games he's had 21 and 23 fantasy points and nearly a double-double in each game (nine rebounds twice) off the bench.  Look for Birch to get somewhere in the mid-20s again for minutes tonight which should be more than enough to pay off his price.

Centers

Nikola Jokic, DEN [vs. DEN] (DK: $10.8K, FD: $11.5K)

I'll start off by saying I'm not in love with this pick.  It's a difficult matchup and this is more than I want to pay for Jokic.  But, you can't argue with the game environment.  It's a must-win game for Denver (I've been saying that a lot lately huh?) and a game Portland would like to win to stay in the three seed.  It comes with a 218 O/U and a spread of only four points as I write this.  Denver will need a big game from Jokic for them to have a chance.  Damian Lillard is going to have a field day with the Nuggets awful backcourt defense so Jokic will have to be the player who allows them to keep pace.  As I said, it's not a great matchup.  Portland ranks 9th against opposing centers over their last ten games and Jusuf Nurkic is one of the better defenders in the league.  Jokic, however, is capable of a big game in any spot.  He's averaging nearly a triple-double in the last week with 23 points, 10.3 rebounds and 9 assists per game.  He's going to need to break out those numbers tonight if his team has any chance of extending their season past Wednesday.  

Jusuf Nurkic, POR [@DEN] (DK: $6.7K, FD: $7.9K)

On the other side of Jokic will be Jusuf Nurkic who finds himself in a great spot tonight.  I've already mentioned how much I like the game environment which should help increase scoring. Denver ranks 23rd in average fantasy points allowed to centers this season.  They are giving up 32.4 fantasy points per game to this position.  In their last meeting on January 22nd, Nurkic had 48 fantasy points including 12 rebounds and 3 blocks.  Typically, he's someone I hesitate to roster as he doesn't always seem to get the same minutes as other players in his price range.  It can make it difficult for him to put up big fantasy performances.  On the season he's averaging 25.4 minutes per game.  That number, however, has increased in the past month to 27.6 per game and more recently 30.2 minutes per game in the last week.  Like many teams right now the Blazers are pulling out all the stops to ensure themselves a trip to the postseason.  Let's also not forget this is a revenge game for Nurkic if you're into narratives.  He was traded from Denver at the deadline last season after being unhappy with playing backup to Jokic.  Judging by his recent performance against his former team I'm sure nothing would satisfy him more than to show up his old teammate.  

Cristiano Felicio, CHI [@BKN] (DK: $4.5K, FD: $5.2K)

Switching gears from two players playing each other in a very important game to a player playing in a completely meaningless game.  Felicio continues to find himself playing increased minutes with Noah Vonleh still day to day and Lauri Markkanen playing limited minutes to protect his back.  In the last week, Felicio has played 29.7 minutes per game with 9.3 points and 9.3 rebounds.  Brooklyn is 25th against centers this season allowing 33 fantasy points and 10.5 rebounds per game.  This is the second game of a back to back series between these two teams.  On Saturday,  Felicio put up 26.7 fantasy points including 11 rebounds which resulted in a double-double.  I had pretty heavy exposure to this game on Saturday as a way to pivot off of the more popular games and it worked out well.  Despite being meaningless it still has a very respectable 219.5 total and a spread of only 7.5 points.  There's a lot of players here trying to showcase their talents for future jobs and opportunities.  Look at this game as a good source of value to help mix in some of the higher priced players from the teams still fighting for postseason glory.  

Injuries 🤕

Toronto at Detroit

Toronto:

• DTD: Fred VanFleet - PG/SG

• DTD: Lucas Nogueira - C

• UPGRADE: Delon Wright - PG/SG, Pascal Siakam - PF

Detroit:

• DTD: Reggie Jackson - PG

• OUT: Reggie Bullock - SG/SF

• OUT: Blake Griffin - PF

• UPGRADE: Ish Smith - PG, Stanley Johnson - SG/SF, Anthony Tolliver - SF/PF

Oklahoma City at Miami

• No injuries reported

Cleveland at New York

Cleveland:

• DTD: Jose Calderon - PG

• DTD: George Hill - PG

• UPGRADE: Jordan Clarkson - PG/SG

New York:

• DTD: Tim Hardaway Jr. - SG/SF

• OUT: Emmanuel Mudiay - PG

• DTD: Enes Kanter - C

• OUT: Troy Williams - SF/PF

• UPGRADE: Kyle O'Quinn - PF/C, Damyean Dotson - SG/SF

Chicago at Brooklyn

Chicago:

• DTD: Noah Vonleh - PF/C

• OUT: Denzel Valentine - SG/SF

• OUT: Paul Zipser - SF/PF

• OUT: Antonio Blakeney - PG/SG

• OUT: Zach LaVine - PG/SG

• OUT: Kris Dunn - PG/SG

• UPGRADE: David Nwaba - SG/SF, Sean Kilpatrick - PG/SG, Bobby Portis - PF/C

Brooklyn: 

• DOUBT: Chris LaVert - SG

• OUT: DeMarre Carroll - SF

• OUT: Isaiah Whitehead - PG

• UPGRADE: Spencer Dinwiddie - PG/SG, Joe Harris - SG/SF

Orlando at Milwaukee

Orlando:

• DTD: Jonathan Isaac - PF/C

• OUT: Jonathan Simmons - SG/SF

• OUT: Evan Fournier - SG/SF

• UPGRADE: Mario Hezonja - SF/PF

Milwaukee:

• DTD: Sterling Brown - SG

• DTD: Shabazz Muhammad - SF

• DTD: Giannis Antetokounmpo - SF/PF

• PROB: Malcolm Brogdon - PG

• UPGRADE: Jabari Parker - SF/PF

Memphis at Minnesota

Memphis:

• OUT: Jarell Martin - SF/PF

• OUT: Wayne Seldon - SG

• OUT: JaMychal Green - PF/C

• OUT: Chander Parsons - SF/PF

• OUT: Andrew Harrison - SG

• OUT: Tyreke Evans - SG/SF

• UPGRADE: MarShon Brooks - SG, Ivan Rabb - PF/C, Kobi Simmons - PG, Dillion Brooks - SG/SF, Ben McLemore - SG/SF

Minnesota:

• No injuries reported

Sacramento at San Antonio

Sacramento:

• DTD: Skal Labissiere - PF/C

• DTD: Zach Randolph - PF/C

• OUT: Garrett Temple - SG/SF

• UPGRADE: Jakarr Sampson - SF, Buddy Hield - SG/SF

San Antonio:

• OUT: Kawhi Leonard - SF

• UPGRADE: N/A

Portland at Denver

Portland:

• DTD: Ed Davis - PF/C

• OUT: Moe Harkless - SG/SF

• UPGRADE: Evan Turner - SG/SF

Denver:

• OUT: Gary Harris - SG

• UPGRADE: Will Barton - SG

New Orleans at LA Clippers

New Orleans:

• OUT: Ian Clark: PG/SG

• UPGRADE: Jordan Crawford - SG

LA Clippers:

• QUEST: Austin Rivers - PG/SG

• DOUBT: Lou Williams - PG/SG

• OUT: Danilo Gallinari - SF

• OUT: Jawun Evans - PG/SG

• OUT: Milos Teodosic - PG/SG

• UPGRADE: Tyrone Wallace - PG/SG, Wes Johnson - SG/SF

Tread lightly out there today.  Even if the regular starters actually start the game for a team with their playoff position locked I wouldn't expect them to play full minutes.  The Celtics, who are not playing today, announced yesterday their starters would be on a minute restriction for their last couple of games.  I'd anticipate other teams doing something similar if they can't improve or lose their current spot.  At this point, your best bet is to stick with the starters on the western conference teams still fighting for playoff spots (or Cleveland and Philadelphia in the east) as they will play heavy minutes.  I would avoid the starters from the teams with their position locked and focus on reserves from those teams where it makes sense.  I purposely didn't mention the big name guys today like LeBron, Westbrook, and Davis.  You know they are always in play if you can find a way to fit them in that doesn't hurt the upside of the rest of your lineup.  There's a couple of sneaky games today between non-playoff contenders as well that could present some value.  Check back for the pre-lock update which should be full of news and as always feel free to leave us feedback by responding to the email or tagging me in NBA chat @glandry.  Good luck today!  

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